I've always wanted to write Vim plugins, and as soon as 0.5 hits stable, I'm looking forward to trying! I won't touch VimScript with a 10-foot pole, and I write code for a living. It's not worth my time, and it does not commute to other things that I'd rather be spending my time coding.
I don't have experience with Vimscript, but I know both Lua and Python. It seems that the biggest benefit is gained by stepping up from Vimscript to any of those two. Switching to the other would only have diminishing returns, if at all.
Apart from that, Lua was explicitly designed to be embedded. Python is designed as a scripting language that can bind to C code, and embedding seems to be an afterthought.
This is demonstrably and unequivocally untrue. Lua is designed to be fast, lightweight, and easy to use as an embedded scripting language. Python is a general-purpose kitchen sink language. Python is 10x bigger, and 10x slower than Lua. It is bad fit for an embedded language.
I even contributed some small patches to a couple of vim plugins which meant writing and debugging vimscript, I hated every second of it.
I'm not a huge fan of Lua either mind you, but I'll take it any day of the week over vimscript.