Russia would not permit NATO to control Belarusian air space. Despite some recent strained relations, Russia would see such a move against Belarus as a move against Russia. The western world's love of "no fly zones" only works with the weakest of opponents that have few friends. This isn't Iraq or Libya, this is Russia's front porch. This type of saber rattling is the type that starts act hot wars.
> Russia would not permit NATO to control Belarusian air space
Nobody proposed NATO air dominance over Belarus. What I proposed is restricting international flights through Belarusian ATZ, denying Belarusian flights international overfly, escorting international flights that get close to Belarus with armed NATO platforms and denying neighbouring airspace to Belarusian armed platforms.
Russia is becoming increasingly irrelevant and powerless. The economy is tiny for it's size and Europe has been reducing its dependence on Russian natural gas.
That also makes me worried, because they're a nuclear nation and when someone is cornered or has nothing left to lose they can become seriously dangerous.
They're waiting for climate change to kick in in earnest and free the northern passage. Then I guess they can act like rentiers and charge shipping for using it.
Other than that as long as Putin stays in power nothing will ever change. Maybe the next czar will be more progressive. Who knows.
Is there anyone willing to try them? I don't think so. We will see some new sanctions and that's all. There were strong words about Russian occupation of Crimea - who really cares about it now? There will be some sanctions and we will forget about this act of terrorism in few weeks, unless they decide to kill that poor guy, maybe then we will see some additional sanctions. And honestly I have no idea what more could anyone do within current geopolitical landscape.
