Microsoft's fate is tied very tightly to the personal computer, and that type of computing is coming to end. Microsoft knows they're in very serious trouble and they're not pumping billions of dollars into Bing, Azure, Skype and Windows Phone for the hell of it. They're doing it so that the company will still be around (in its current form) 10 years from now.
But Microsoft has already lost the mindshare of developers. That's what really matters. Developers are moving en-masse to mobile and cloud computing and leaving Microsoft's platforms behind. And if they aren't using Microsoft technologies to write software, then nobody is writing software for personal computers, which means every way that Microsoft currently making money is a shrinking market.
Microsoft can still make money in a shrinking PC market the same way Phillip Morris makes profit as the last big tobacco company. And I think they may have no choice but to accept that fate.
Who says the PC industry is doomed? I think with Apple's recent announcement on what they envision cloud computing to be, I think that one can still argue that OS is still in the forefront.
If PCs were doomed, we would not see a huge uptick in tablet sales (most data points to that consumers want iPads, not tablets)? What are your criteria for saying that PCs are doomed?
The PC is doomed the same way mini-computers became obsolete. The PC was simply a transition from mainframe enterprise computing toward smaller, mobile, thin-client devices.
Mainframes -> Mini-computers -> personal computers -> mobile computers
The operating system and software is irrelevant with respect to the hardware-side of things. From the software perspective, I see everything eventually going full-on network-dependent, thin-client, web apps. Apple might still be pushing native mobile apps because they make lots of money at it, but long term that phenomenon will not last.
I'd be interested to hear from software developers what can actually be done at a web app level. Can we eventually have a fully functional Photoshop webapp?
Take a look at a company called Kaviza (recently bought by Citrix). They have been doing some good work in terms of deploying VMs onto thin clients.
Lets be honest though. Google Docs sucks compared to the Office suite. I've tried to use Google Docs for serious work, but a lot of functionality is still missing. Even if the world moves to web apps, I don't think Microsoft is doomed. An OS still has to run on the thin client, and Microsoft can develop web apps. I'd be very interested to try out Office 365 when it goes live.
Cloud based apps don't have to be web apps. Just ask Apple.
Turnaround? Their revenue in 2000 was 23 billion and in 2010 it was 62 billion. They doubled their earnings over the decade. The commonly penned idea in the press that MSFT sucks and Ballmer needs to be ousted is horse crap.
Apple's revenue in 2000 was $7.9 billion. In 2010, it was $65.2 billion.
Google's revenue in 2002 (earliest full year I could find) was $439 million. In 2010, it was $29.3 billion.
Amazon's revenue in 2000 was $2.7 billion In 2010, it was $34.2 billion.
Microsoft has lagged and that's why the media thinks MSFT sucks and Ballmer needs to be ousted.
Microsoft is probably a lot like RIM: the top guys look at their balance sheet and think everything is roses because they have growth while everybody else is lapping them over and over again.
By definition. If this is the peak, then they're going to decline. If this isn't the peak, then they're going to continue improving. It's a useless statement, is my point.
They've had the Xbox, a successful image of cool for nearly a decade and it hasn't helped the rest of the business. They spent half a billion advertising some version of windows mobile (which was it? I never saw the adverts), another half billion on corny windows 7 adverts (which get worse and worse) that was pointless because anyone who didn't want mac would automatically get windows 7.
Some might say it's a turnaround soon purely because Balmer will get fired soon. There's no chance he'll get replaced by someone un-safe, un-boring.
Weird as it may seem, but Microsoft's change in focus from native code development to the .Net platform with all the associated hype, has been the single most important reason why they were left behind in the technology race.
And, I am sure this realization is dawning on them. :)
With all the focus these days on mobile, I think the product to keep them current is WP7. However, they don't seem to be pushing it as a real alternative to iOS or Android. And it's really a shame, it's a great bit of software. Without a big marketing push, though, it's unlikely to become a viable alternative.
No. Not as long as they embrace homegrown, proprietary technologies as opposed to widely-adopted (ala WebKit) or open standards. Interoperability is still their Achille's Tendon.
Microsoft's fate is tied very tightly to the personal computer, and that type of computing is coming to end. Microsoft knows they're in very serious trouble and they're not pumping billions of dollars into Bing, Azure, Skype and Windows Phone for the hell of it. They're doing it so that the company will still be around (in its current form) 10 years from now.
But Microsoft has already lost the mindshare of developers. That's what really matters. Developers are moving en-masse to mobile and cloud computing and leaving Microsoft's platforms behind. And if they aren't using Microsoft technologies to write software, then nobody is writing software for personal computers, which means every way that Microsoft currently making money is a shrinking market.
Microsoft can still make money in a shrinking PC market the same way Phillip Morris makes profit as the last big tobacco company. And I think they may have no choice but to accept that fate.