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I am not sure Russia would not attempt to take the Baltics. They directly border Russia, has previously been a part of the Soviet Union, etc.

It would depend entirely on how Europe and the US reacts of course. If Europe stand united then Russia would stay out. If the US was willing to get involved then Russia would stay out.

Possibly France and Poland could stop Russia from taking the Baltics, but I don't think so.

I would have said Turkey wouldn't do anything, but with Erodogan I don't know any longer.

As for major conflicts in Europe, I have seen, stood on and crawled in the bunkers from the Atlantic wall (not hard, they are still very much a part of the landscape here in Denmark) I have seen the beeches in Normandy that are still marked by shell holes (or possibly granade holes). It is a nice reminder that major conflicts really did happen there.

I too used to think they would not happen in Europe ever again, because we could always count on the US as the backer of the peace and then nobody else would do anything. That got a shock on 9/11, and then the deal (which to be fair was never very good for the US) got a serious wack with the Trump administration.

Without guaranteed US backing, the peace in Europe seems a lot less solid. A united Europe (especially with the ability to buy weapons from the US, which I don't think is going to be an issue) is still very strong (and Russia isn't), but Europe is not united in much. And the public certainly isn't going to be happy with large scale war. We like our public safety nets, easy lives and long summers just as much as the next person.

Anyway that is a long armchair comment about the sentiment here in Europe.




I think we can get some idea of what Russia would risk from how the acted with the Ukraine.

Shadow warfare, proxy warfare, territory annexation.

It would be a serious escalation in strategy and risk to invade and annex a Baltic state. It seems unlikely to me, for what it's worth.

Turkey is expanding their influence on their neighborhood, but they won't seek out conflict with the EU, that's suicide.

Turkey and Russia could be a problematic situation though. They're similarly sized economies, although Russia has a serious military advantage.


> Turkey and Russia could be a problematic situation though. They're similarly sized economies, although Russia has a serious military advantage.

Russia's GDP is twice the size of Turkey. Russia is more similar to UK/France/Canada than Turkey.[0]

[0]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nomi...


Yes, but growing much more slowly than Turkey and with problematic demographics. This could be an issue in a couple decades.




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