First of all how many years have we been hearing about how we'll have fully autonomous vehicles just around the corner? At least a decade.
How many years have we been hearing that human-like AI is just around the corner? At least since the 60's.
I'm skeptical (although optimistic) about massive tech breakthroughs in general. Even more so when it comes to military tech since so many in the mil. industrial complex stand to benefit from the trillions that the DoD sloughs off every few years for the next big thing.
Not an aviator but spent almost a decade in the military. You used to hear all the time about the latest and greatest tech that was going to change the way we fight.
At least in my nearly 10 years nothing really changed in any substantial way. incremental improvements, sure but no massive breakthroughs like are continually trumpeted in popular press.
We won't have general human-comparable AI or autonomous driving (or we will briefly until a few tragic things happen and people come to their senses). Enthusiasts think we will, but people underestimate what real intelligence requires and confuse it with training complex statistical models.
They call it AI, but the "intelligence" there is just a name.
We don't need a human-like AI to beat humans in the air. I can't imagine that the US doesn't already have a fully autonomous aircraft, and a virtual fully autonomous fighter jet waiting for the physical jet to be built, if that hasn't happened already. In any case, we wont be hearing about it for a while. It took seven years from first flight for the F117 to become public.
No matter when it happens, I think that when General AI shows up most of us will be shocked and surprised.
General AI showing up will be kind of like the discovery of quantum mechanics and the nuclear bomb. No matter how much speculative fiction we write about it, we won't be able to predict ahead of time how transformative it will be on society once it actually exists.
First of all how many years have we been hearing about how we'll have fully autonomous vehicles just around the corner? At least a decade.
How many years have we been hearing that human-like AI is just around the corner? At least since the 60's.
I'm skeptical (although optimistic) about massive tech breakthroughs in general. Even more so when it comes to military tech since so many in the mil. industrial complex stand to benefit from the trillions that the DoD sloughs off every few years for the next big thing.
Not an aviator but spent almost a decade in the military. You used to hear all the time about the latest and greatest tech that was going to change the way we fight.
At least in my nearly 10 years nothing really changed in any substantial way. incremental improvements, sure but no massive breakthroughs like are continually trumpeted in popular press.
I hope you're right though!