So did Microsoft sell 350 million copies of Windows 7 in a year, or are desktops "increasingly niche devices"? I'm not sure the two positions are compatible.
Sure some of the win 7 sales are upgrades, but while growth of pc sales has slowed, pc sales are up.
Given the number of pc's out there running windows xp, and with no data to suggest that those machines will be _replaced_ by tablets, I think the assertion that desktop machines are "niche" is somewhat pre-mature.
It's just a reality distortion field, typical for developers. A couple of years ago I also thought desktop-Linux will completely replace Windows.
Truth of the matter is desktops still represent the largest market of devices consumers are buying and at least 90% of them run Windows. This whole post-PC notion is crappy and doesn't hold water - tables and smartphones are complementary products to desktops, and won't replace desktops until you'll be able to attach to them a 21 inch monitor, a keyboard and a mouse/trackball.
> A couple of years ago I also thought desktop-Linux will completely replace Windows.
I don't understand how you could have ever thought that.
> Truth of the matter is desktops still represent the largest market of devices consumers are buying and at least 90% of them run Windows. This whole post-PC notion is crappy and doesn't hold water - tables and smartphones are complementary products to desktops, and won't replace desktops until you'll be able to attach to them a 21 inch monitor, a keyboard and a mouse/trackball.
There's a contingent of desktop users who just can't let go. The idea of things changing is a scary thought. Tablets are exploding in sales because they're fulfilling the ultimate goal of accessible computing. The maintenance hell of PCs, tying people to a desk, will be viewed as a fluke in an industry that was in its technological infancy, the same way we no longer hand-crank automobiles to start them.
You talk about connecting to a 21-inch monitor and using a keyboard and mouse as if people WANT to do that. People today are using game consoles and touchscreens. If they want to see something on a big screen, they'll plug their mobile devices into their giant HDTVs, or they'll use their Apple TV or their game console. With the exception of Blizzard, PC gaming already died and went to consoles and mobile devices, and it's not as if PCs are going to let users watch YouTube videos, send email, or read books better than an iPad will.
Mobile devices are the futuristic vision of appliance computing that everyone has envisioned for decades. That leaves PCs as something leftover for power users. Steve Jobs gave a quote about desktop PCs, comparing them to pickup trucks. Most people won't need them, but they'll still be around for those who do.
but suppose the average user wants to write a long note on facebook (cause real non-techy people do not use email, anymore). They will also plug a keyboard. Now, you are back to have a big screen (tv, monitor) and a computing unit (pc, post-pc-device), and external input device.
You have a PC, again, except the tower casing is small enough and can be used independently.
So did Microsoft sell 350 million copies of Windows 7 in a year, or are desktops "increasingly niche devices"? I'm not sure the two positions are compatible.
Of course they're compatible. Laptops outsold desktops for the first time in 2005. See the attached chart for the US, which actually tends to lag the world in laptop vs desktop ratios:
Desktops are becoming a niche device. I do friends/family tech support on about 50 PCs. Of those about 10 are desktops. The other 40 are laptops (not saying my anecdote is data, but I don't think its unusual, and the actual data does suggest the same).
Ahh - ok - I see laptops, and desktops as basically the same thing in the context of the original discussion (which was on the merits of a tablet OS vs a PC OS).
So I guess my point is this -
Tablets have gotten huge market traction, and of course are all the rage as new models are announced and ship almost daily. but tablets are not great devices for "work". they're great consuming devices, fantastic for web browsing, you-tube, facebook, twitter and so on, but less great for "creation".
I'm not sure there are many _jobs_ where a tablet removes the need for a desktop (or laptop) - especially when it comes to the classic office functions (documents, spreadsheets, accounting, presentations, graphic or video creation, software development and so on.)
The tablet market will grow as it places a consumption device in the hands of consumers - however there are hundreds of millions of content producers already producing
who are unlikely to give up their regular PC's, keyboard, mouse or big screen anytime soon.
I see laptops, and desktops as basically the same thing in the context of the original discussion (which was on the merits of a tablet OS vs a PC OS).
My niche comment was based on the fact that I think the new UI works for tablets and laptops. Less so for actual desktops. But I thought desktops were becoming more niche.
With that said, I agree with everything else you said. Tablets are great for consumption, not creation/productivity. This is actually why I like the Win8 approach if I can seamless hop between the two worlds.
I think that's exactly his point. Most users of PCs are consumers, not producers. That consumption will move towards tablet devices because they are easier to use, while the fraction of users that are producers will decline.
What I expect to also happen is that the move to cheaper PC tablets will make other applications feasible that are now constrained by hardware costs.
Sure some of the win 7 sales are upgrades, but while growth of pc sales has slowed, pc sales are up.
Given the number of pc's out there running windows xp, and with no data to suggest that those machines will be _replaced_ by tablets, I think the assertion that desktop machines are "niche" is somewhat pre-mature.