> It reminds me a bit of the articles about DuckDuckGo vs Google where many people think big changes in usage are happening while ignoring that the average Joe will keep using whatever it’s using unless there’s way too much trouble to continue using it.

I don't think that this is an apt comparison. The functionality of IM is virtually unchanged for the past 20 years or so, and can easily be replicated. This makes jumping between different IM much more frictionless than switching a search engine.