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I wonder if hitting the delivery targets of 20M per month is going to be achieved. That's the first bottleneck before the vaccine supply.


Right now, many jurisdictions are supply limited, and most look like they're ramping enough to be supply limited, though still a bit more slowly than I'd like.

Lowering reserves would still increase administration rate immediately (though not proportionally). Actually, we might even enter phase 1B in some areas and have a mostly parallel administration system start to come up...

It's unclear to me how much of the slowness so far in administration (13.5% of doses allotted are reported as administered so far)... is A) (fixed?) delays in reporting, B) (fixed?) delays in logistics getting doses to administration sites, C) limitations on rate of administration, D) holiday-related slowness. Only C really matters in the long term-- if it is ramping poorly compared to production than that's a problem. But I think it's premature to assume C is limiting when A, B, & D are surely large right now.




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