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Political support for lockdowns etc will surely drop hard once significant parts of the high risk population are vaccinated and intensive care utilization goes down (support was eroding even before vaccine news hit). We'll then see a heavy third wave challenging the immune systems of those who didn't qualify for early vaccination.

Currently we don't even know wether the vaccines can cause herd immunity effects or not. It's perfectly possible that they just reduce heavy sickness infections into symptomless spreader infections. The tests didn't check for that (you can't do daily PCR on a test population of ten thousands). If that was the case the vaccines would still be a great improvement, but the third wave during partial vaccination would be particularly nasty if the vaccinated are not firewalls but stopovers.




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