People are taking more risks because it's been 9 months of restrictions.
The first month or so in the Bay Area people were super diligent. There was nobody on the streets, hardly anybody shopping. Within a month you noticed more people on the streets, by 6 months, traffic was 75% of what it was before Covid.
You can't expect people to put their lives on hold indefinitely, especially people at low risk. I know that in Canada 20-30 year olds accounted for the vast majority of new cases. They were just willing to take a chance.
And even though these two vaccines look promising, you won't get a significant number of people vaccinated until the second half of 2021. That's another 7-8 months away.
Reminds me of that movie scene in Apocalypse Now when they are getting mortared on the beach while trying to surf - "The tide doesn't come in for six hours, do you want to wait here for six hours?" - Lt. Col. Kilgore
It’s still indefinite until someone defines it, and I haven’t seen any public health official who’s willing to specify a date when things will be back to normal. Many aren’t even willing to say that we can go back to normal once we’re vaccinated.
I'm now at July. Before this I was at early 2022. Every successful trial pushes my date back a bit. If the oxford and J&J both successfully finish trials by the end of this year I might push back to as early as march.
Of course roll out matters. Rochester MN (Home of the Mayo clinic) might open before the rest of the country just because the ratio of health care vs everyone else is enough that they may as well vaccinate the whole town and let it open up.
The first month or so in the Bay Area people were super diligent. There was nobody on the streets, hardly anybody shopping. Within a month you noticed more people on the streets, by 6 months, traffic was 75% of what it was before Covid.
You can't expect people to put their lives on hold indefinitely, especially people at low risk. I know that in Canada 20-30 year olds accounted for the vast majority of new cases. They were just willing to take a chance.
And even though these two vaccines look promising, you won't get a significant number of people vaccinated until the second half of 2021. That's another 7-8 months away.
Reminds me of that movie scene in Apocalypse Now when they are getting mortared on the beach while trying to surf - "The tide doesn't come in for six hours, do you want to wait here for six hours?" - Lt. Col. Kilgore