Not only that, 538 gave Trump a 1/3 chance of winning Florida, so it's not a surprise at all, and all things considered now that the votes are almost final, 1/10 chance for Trump to win seems reasonable. But as you mention, there's no way to figure out what the true probability was.
The bigger mistake here though is looking at the mean and ignoring the error on those values. 538 is fairly conservative in their calculations and their error bars are pretty big, so almost all of these results are well within their error bars.
The bigger mistake here though is looking at the mean and ignoring the error on those values. 538 is fairly conservative in their calculations and their error bars are pretty big, so almost all of these results are well within their error bars.