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> 10 million cumulative cases

Known cases. True numbers are likely to be much higher than that. For starters, the estimated percentage of entirely asymptomatic infections is around 18% to 80%(1), with many more getting only mild symptoms. Many if not most people with mild symptoms will never bother to get tested.

It would not be surprising if 100 million Americans have in fact been infected already. That's the kind of ratio of known to actual cases that antibody testing has repeatedly found. And even that may be an underestimate, as antibody testing doesn't measure T-cell response.

1) https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7470698/



Your order of magnitude is off (log2 = n + * 3)




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