I don't see him posting how the Bettfair was way more accurate than his polls.
I also get that Nate Silver doesnt poll himself, but he aggreates polling information, assign grades and mixes it into his formula. I just have zero trust in it. It's not like we get to test his predictions often. 1 sample size every 4 years.
Biden got out to around $4-$5 during election night. I wouldn’t put much weight in the betting when it appeared to fail to account for the expected composition of postal votes. Trump should have been at best a slight favorite before the effect of the postals started showing in the counts.
Nate Silver still makes fun of Betting odds: https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1325186985988935680
I don't see him posting how the Bettfair was way more accurate than his polls.
I also get that Nate Silver doesnt poll himself, but he aggreates polling information, assign grades and mixes it into his formula. I just have zero trust in it. It's not like we get to test his predictions often. 1 sample size every 4 years.