Polling is hard and the result are likely non-representative. Great! Then don’t display them to the public and have pollsters in interviews acting as if their insight is in any way valuable to most people. They’re either incompetently wrong or, worse, intentionally manipulative.
Just because something exists doesn’t mean it has value in the wrong context.
Just because something isn't perfect doesn't mean it has no value. Polls communicate experts best guess at how the vote is going to turn out based on the data they have collected. It's likely to be a lot more accurate than a non-experts guess, or even the guess of an expert without any data. It's also not even possible to share the raw data because of privacy concerns.
The forecasts you see on sites like 538 and the economist are even better, because it doesn't just communicate experts best guess (democrats win by +7), but experts best guess at how accurate that guess is too (something like democrats win by +7 +- 6, except in a lot more detail and nuance).
On HN the catchphrase for this is basically "don't let perfect be the enemy of good".
@gpm what I’m arguing isn’t for replacing good with perfect. I’m saying these don’t make it to the level of good. They provide no relevant or valuable information to the public.
If weather forecasters were wrong nearly 100% of the time, would they provide value? If a hurricane was approaching and they couldn’t predict probable paths within any margin of error, would they provide any value.
If a weather forecaster can predict the temperature next week to within a few degrees and can tell you when they are sure it will rain, when they are sure it will be sunny, and provide a good guess as to rain or shine on most of the other days you would consider that person a good weather forecaster.
Do you expect the weather report for the next week to nail the temperature of every day next week to within 1 degree?
The pollsters can tell you if a hurricane is coming, they can tell you when the weather might shift significantly (albeit not be absolutely certain about which direction it is shifting) and they can give you a very good idea of what to expect even if they do not get the exact temp for each day correct.
really though, what tangible value do polls provide anyway? i get that the polling over the last few years hasn't been great, but i don't really understand why everyone's so upset about it. did anyone actually make or change decisions based on these polls? they're just predictions anyway.
for instance, in your example, a hurricane's path directly affects citizens of cities that lie on that path—do they need to prepare to leave their homes, etc.? but is anyone actually basing their decision to vote or who to vote for on the polls in such a way that it significantly affects the outcome?
I live in Canada but am working for an American country. I am considering if/when I want to move to the US, they informed me about the likely outcome of this election, which influenced my plans a non trivial amount (not a huge amount either, covid dominates in the planning process, but a non-zero amount).
For many people it can influence how they vote. If you're in a state with a potential to change the outcome of the election you are more likely to vote "strategically", i.e. vote for one of the two most popular candidates instead of vote for a third party that you prefer. On the flip side if you're voting in a non-competitive race you are much more likely to vote for a candidate who is unlikely to win in order to better indicate your preferences (i.e. you should be more likely to vote libertarian/green/...).
For many people who wins an election affects there careers going forward, in the US in particular a large number of people are fired/hired based on the election. Even if you're not in that position your industry might get more or less government funding, if you're a government contractor the projects you are working on might or might not be in danger of getting cancelled, and so on and so forth. Having better information earlier makes it easier to plan your life.
The US election is one of the most significant worldwide events that happens every 4 years, the idea that being able to better predict it is not valuable is... insane.
you definitely make some good points. i realized a few things i didn't think about after posting as well.
i guess i was thinking more along the lines of, most of the time i personally don't think you should be choosing a presidential candidate based on predictions of who may or may not win. even some of your examples are more centered on the ultimate outcome of the election and how to plan for it; i really think people whose lives could be affected that drastically should be planning ahead for that situation anyway.
nonetheless, i agree they do have some value, and perhaps i should have clarified my line of thinking more clearly.
Polling is hard and the result are likely non-representative. Great! Then don’t display them to the public and have pollsters in interviews acting as if their insight is in any way valuable to most people. They’re either incompetently wrong or, worse, intentionally manipulative.
Just because something exists doesn’t mean it has value in the wrong context.