> it's definitely possible for Sweden to experience a second wave soon, but it won't if this virus' dynamics is similar to other viruses - which, by all studies, it very much is.
Again, that seems like you're just trying to argue by fiat. There's NO EVIDENCE that Sweden has reached herd immunity. It's initial outbreak was less severe than Spain or France, both of which are now well into a very large phase 2 outbreak. What's the argument that this is impossible in Sweden that doesn't rest on arguing that it hasn't happened yet?
> What's the argument that this is impossible in Sweden that doesn't rest on arguing that it hasn't happened yet?
What's the argument that Sweden will experience one, given that there is no reason to believe a phase change in Sweden (or a change in circumstances, like measures in other places cause), other than that other countries experienced ones? It goes both ways.
> What's the argument that Sweden will experience one
That everyone else has? Again, the only way for you to make your argument work is to argue that Sweden is somehow special in a deeply unique way. All I need to say is that they're probably just lucky.
Not everyone else has. NY's graphs, of both disease and death, are similar to Sweden's, and SURPRISE it doesn't have a 2nd wave either.
All I need to say that is that they did something different to postulate that the result might be different (and so far, has). I acknowledge there is no proof either way, but you are just putting hands in your ears and saying "I can't hear you, my position is right by default so there". This argument is over as far as I am concerned.
Do you care to revisit your assurance that this couldn't happen and that the one outlier (no longer an outlier) of Swedish data might not have been the best reference for informing US policy?
(Edit: I love the near synchronous downvote in a week old thread. That's just... <chef's kiss>)
Again, that seems like you're just trying to argue by fiat. There's NO EVIDENCE that Sweden has reached herd immunity. It's initial outbreak was less severe than Spain or France, both of which are now well into a very large phase 2 outbreak. What's the argument that this is impossible in Sweden that doesn't rest on arguing that it hasn't happened yet?