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What makes you confident China will be the world's top market?

Their growth is slowing, they've got major structural issues internally, and the rest of the world is uniting against them.

The US and the West are going to stop playing nice.



> What makes you confident China will be the world's top market?

There are 1.4 BILLION people in China. Even if in a few decades the entire world has a similar GDP per capita, China will top the list.

It might sound weird to our modern ears. But China has always been this planet's top economy until Europe found America and then 'found' Africa.


They do have 1+B people long ago. Science and technology need the soil of IP protection, justice system and other core values (that CCP does not respect or care) to grow. You think talents would like to stay in a closed system like that? Think about it again after checking out situation in Hong Kong last year.


The USSR managed to be the #2 scientific power without any of that, so I'm pretty sure that's just disguised fukuyamaism.


Only in some science branches, e.g. nuclear physics. But not microprocessors.

Also, scientific power is not the same as developed market. USSR was scientifically strong, but economically weak, ask ex-Soviet citizens how the 1980s looked like - an era of queues for basic necessities.


The Soviet Union was still the #2 economy too. And while it was behind in microprocessors, it was ahead in other branches, for example phage therapy and some fields of metallurgy. So it is correct to say that it was #2.


Per what measure? Are you counting the United States and Western Europe as the #1 economy collectively?


Using either GNP or GDP, the USSR was the State with the second biggest economy for most of its existence.


Sure, if you believe the figures published by the USSR's government.


With around the same population as the US too.


Indeed, it was only very slightly more populous than the US.


> Their growth is slowing, they've got major structural issues internally,

Those exact words has been making the headlines in the newspapers since 1989 at least, every single year, and yet here we are today, at the point where the US is willing to dismantle half of the global trade only to stop China from accessing whatever useful technology it still has not bought in the West.


> from accessing whatever useful technology it still has not bought in the West.

Or stolen.

Examples among many other include Nortel/Huawei, Chinese state hackers trying to get into ASML.

And whenever a company wants to do business in China, they need to create a subsidiary in China. The Chinese communist party has a fellow embedded in said subsidiary, and they can veto anything.


Unless we give up and conclude that some countries will remain poor and under-developed for ever, the benchmark is population (and natural resources).

The US are particularly powerful because they are both developed and have a large population. Same for Germany in Europe.

Based on that, I don't see why China and India should remain behind the US, even if there'll of course be bumps in the road.


Pakistan, Nigeria, and a host of other countries have large populations.

Education and wealth matter a lot. If China can spread this out, then we'll be talking. As it stands, their educated middle class is very concentrated.


Among them only China scores a three digits number on an important metrics. The implication of this is controversial but can’t be discarded lightly.




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