> The other option is that everything ad supported goes out of business because the ROI on dumb ads is negative.

Yes by “has to be” I was expressing a personal desire and prediction, nothing else.

It’s probably not one or the other but somewhere in between.

That's fair. I think I was tired when I read your original comment.

You have a nice day.

We have a past where dumb ads used to work reasonably well, and could sustain a huge diversity of publications of all sizes.

There may be some reason why this can't work again, but all of the reasons I can come up with point to a higher ROI for those ads, not lower.