So, let’s look at the numbers. What’s the ratio of people to police? I would bet that it’s a lot higher than 20:1. In other words, a black person meeting a polic officer is a whole lot more likely to get killed than a black person meeting another black person. That’s why fear of police is perfectly rational for blacks.
But the point is about whether you are afraid to go outside or not, and if so, is it because of criminals or police. Before you leave, you don't know how many criminals or police you are going to encounter.
Even if tigers are really scary when you meet one, I am not afraid to go outside because I might get eaten by a tiger.
I guess we could do a lot of subgroup analysis here and try to figure out based on day of the week and the route you are taking how much of your fear should be allotted to police versus allotted to criminals. But you start with the big, easy-to-find numbers and do a basic sanity check. I don't think being carefree about criminals and afraid of police is rational in very many situations.
Honestly, as someone who hangs around “criminals”... as long as you actually pay your drug dealer nothing that will ever be reported as a crime is going to happen. Most crime that would be perpetrated against a stranger is property crime, and poor individuals by and large aren’t the target of it. If you’re a shopkeeper, sure.
On the other hand, I’ve seen more than enough people being arrested for nonsense, having done nothing but tick an officer off in some apparently random way - and these people will always be released immediately before the police would have to explain to a judge why they had arrested this person. Being detained is plenty scary enough, and could cost you your job.
