While I agree the risks are higher than Soyuz, there has to be an acceptable risk threshold, in order to build the safety record of a new platform.

Both the Saturn 5 and Space Shuttle had far fewer unmanned launches than Dragon, before the first manned flight. The Soyuz booster started as an ICBM, and thus has a harder to compare track record. Here's a graphic for the booster family historically: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_R-7_launches

So, never flying on new vehicle or flying a vehicle uncrewed for 40 years is the only option you consider save?

That seems like incredible pessimism to me.

Maybe somewhere between those two extremes.