> The problem is, unsophisticated models do not predict anything. You apply them in one country and they do ok, and apply them in another and they get it totally and completely wrong.
That's the nature of all models, "sophisticated" or not. Relatively simple models may or may not be useful for a particular case, just as relative complex models may be.
That's the nature of all models, "sophisticated" or not. Relatively simple models may or may not be useful for a particular case, just as relative complex models may be.