I don't agree that this is the reason that people are in a "tizzy". To me this instance is an instance where a shock enters the system.
Think of it like a differential equation where a steady state is changed... like a spring that has been held in a certain position is released. There will be a shock as the system seeks to find a new equilibrium.
The fact that the system has been shocked means that there is some predictable craziness that will happen soon. It is basically guaranteed fun no matter how it turns out.
I've been following bitcoin a long time, and was excited for the halving. But I'd never heard of the model you described and could care less about it.
It would be more apt to say the spring is in a high viscosity fluid. It takes some time for the fluid to move away because there is some friction in the system. It's free to make small movements quite quickly but the longer ones are damped. But there is a spring in there with one end connected to something. In the case of BTC it's probably connected to a much larger mass in the fluid that can move itself, not held down like some fiats.
I completely agree with you which is why i’m replying that you should read those 2 models (S2F and S2FX). Its anonymous author says the same thing as you but goes a step further trying to meaningfully quantify it. They are honest about the fact that this is just a model but nevertheless a very interesting one. If you like math i encourage you to have a proper look at it.
Think of it like a differential equation where a steady state is changed... like a spring that has been held in a certain position is released. There will be a shock as the system seeks to find a new equilibrium.
The fact that the system has been shocked means that there is some predictable craziness that will happen soon. It is basically guaranteed fun no matter how it turns out.
I've been following bitcoin a long time, and was excited for the halving. But I'd never heard of the model you described and could care less about it.