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TLDR: mining rewards should pretty much have no effect on BTC price

We're years into bitcoin and I feel that people still don't understand the basic premise that with an adjusting difficulty it literally doesn't matter how many people want to mine. Difficulty will adjust to about the break even point for miners that can run at scale (likely in a place with cheap electricity).

The price of bitcoin is still based on supply and demand for bitcoin. Whatever THAT clearing price is will determine whether or not it is profitable to mine. If it is not profitable to mine, miners will drop out until the difficulty level falls enough that it becomes profitable again.




Importantly, with the reward being cut in half, difficulty should go down.


Competition or difficulty ?


> TLDR: mining rewards should pretty much have no effect on BTC price

Miners will want to cover the cost of mining, and to achieve that they will want to sell coins for higher price than they were selling it before for.


No, they can't sell it unless someone wants to buy it. Miners will either go out of business or get into the business until the difficulty level approaches whatever a marginal profit is above whatever the current price of BTC is




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