That is an optimistic outlook and I hope you are right.
But I bet you are wrong. The destruction of the energy industry will last into 2021 and that alone will drag the economy down. There are also 26 million people who have been out of work and some non-zero percentage of those people won't be able to find work when or if the national economy is full reopened. Then there is the phenomenon of people retracting from spending after big financial events.
...and people are going to be scared for a long time, probably until there is a vaccine. I saw Reuters poll yesterday that indicated 40-60% of people would not go to the movies, a concert, sporting event, conference, or other large gathering until there was a vaccine. To expect that there won't be a trickle down impact from people retreating into their homes is... optimistic.
...but I hope you're right. The pessimists (me) dominate the headlines but the optimists are right more often.
I am pessimistic with regards to virus but optimistic with regards to economy.
I think people underestimate how difficult it is going to be to fight the virus. I think it is pretty much too late now. Only early and very decisive moves would have been able to stop it, the way China did, but it is way past that point.
But, I think we underestimate how people can learn to live the new normal. There will be people hit very profoundly, but overwhelming majority will adjust. We have maybe stopped spending for a bit fearing the worst, but now it seems we already reached the worst and so people are going to learn and resume their lives.
But I bet you are wrong. The destruction of the energy industry will last into 2021 and that alone will drag the economy down. There are also 26 million people who have been out of work and some non-zero percentage of those people won't be able to find work when or if the national economy is full reopened. Then there is the phenomenon of people retracting from spending after big financial events.
...and people are going to be scared for a long time, probably until there is a vaccine. I saw Reuters poll yesterday that indicated 40-60% of people would not go to the movies, a concert, sporting event, conference, or other large gathering until there was a vaccine. To expect that there won't be a trickle down impact from people retreating into their homes is... optimistic.
...but I hope you're right. The pessimists (me) dominate the headlines but the optimists are right more often.