Every article I see about people testing asymptomatic is followed by comments insisting they were asymptomatic when tested, with no idea of whether they stayed asymptomatic or whether virtually all of them had symptoms a few days later, thus basically invalid.
But this doesn't seem like a hard problem to solve, folks. Is nobody bothering to follow up with the asymptomatic people a week later? Just take their mobile phone number, and text them en masse with a quick Y/N question as to whether or not they got sick?
This stuff baffles me. This is literally a matter of life-and-death, and yet the most basic questions seem to be unanswered. (Or are these follow-up surveys being done but the media just refuses to report them because it now feels like week-old news? I'd love to know.)
The USS Theodore Roosevelt situation was discussed here several days ago. At this time about 60% of the crew who tested positive are still asymptomatic. Enough time has passed that we can be confident they aren't just presymptomatic. Numbers are pretty solid since they were all quarantined and tracked. Infection fatality rate was about 0.1%, however that's probably not representative of the general population.
>Infection fatality rate was about 0.1%, however that's probably not representative of the general population.
That's something of an understatement - deployed naval personnel are almost exclusively young and healthy, putting them at exceptionally low risk of becoming seriously ill from COVID-19.
The data is valid, at least to the extent that the tests are accurate (there will be some false results). The Navy has openly published their numbers. If they didn't want us to know they would simply classify everything as a matter of operational readiness instead of lying.
>they would simply classify everything as a matter of operational readiness instead of lying //
Do you think, it seems that not releasing data would be a clear sign they're hiding something - given the public nature of the situation - releasing distorted figures is very difficult to find as you'd need to take a census of sailors ... which the navy/politicians would simply not allow. And the people involved themselves mightn't even notice if the figures were just massaged.
> Just take their mobile phone number, and text them en masse with a quick Y/N question as to whether or not they got sick?
I've been wondering why this isn't just being done for everyone in the country, every few days?
"The main symptoms of COVID-19 are X, Y, Z. If you think you may have COVID-19 please respond "Yes" to this text message. This is free. Your response is private and used to understand the spread of COVID-19 in our country. Please visit http://some.link for more information"
If someone responds "yes" you could follow up with some more questions, if that was useful. And then text them a few days later to see if they're feeling better or worse, or maybe ask them to describe how they feel.
There are lots of problems with this idea: people lying or not taking it seriously; people not responding; not everyone has a cellphone; some people will be worried about privacy, etc etc...
But surely there'd be something useful to learn from it? And it seems like it should be easy to do, really, if you got the mobile providers on board (or just order them to help).
In Italy they're personally tracking every confirmed case. Meanwhile, here in NYC, I called 311 to report my suspected case and that wasn't even a thing they were tracking. We just don't have our shit together over here, not at a state or national level.
Vague and/or non-comparable data provides decision deniability and narrative flexibility in many possible futures. Open-source analysis and watchdogs provide one level of defense.
I recently completed a survey conducted by NORC which asked a series of questions that seemed to test whether I had contracted Covid-19. I received the survey invitation in the mail so it must have been randomized. We'll have to wait to see the results.
In the uk at least we have an app that you can update with your current health status/feelings and they can track the Wuhan flu with that. They are encouraging users to report in once a day even if you have no symptoms.
I saw it suggested on Twitter yesterday that the political polling firms should be doing some coronavirus polling, tracking trends in self-reported cases the same way they track public opinion.
I'm not sure if that would be scientifically useful in any way, but it sure would be interesting.
I've heard this more recently that it's a characteristic which means that people who think they're getting better will then suddenly have a turn for the worse, because they don't feel as sick but their blood oxygen level is actually quite low -- they try to exert themselves, go upstairs say, and then faint.
And this can also happen if there's a liquid nitrogen or liquid helium spill in a place without sufficient ventilation. As happened to an acquaintance of mine. If that happens get out even if you don't feel any shortness of breath.
Can you show me the original data sources first? I'll happily send off emails to the various authors and report back to you on what their follows up are.
But this doesn't seem like a hard problem to solve, folks. Is nobody bothering to follow up with the asymptomatic people a week later? Just take their mobile phone number, and text them en masse with a quick Y/N question as to whether or not they got sick?
This stuff baffles me. This is literally a matter of life-and-death, and yet the most basic questions seem to be unanswered. (Or are these follow-up surveys being done but the media just refuses to report them because it now feels like week-old news? I'd love to know.)