I think there is an additional problem with "1 in 100 year" events: it looks so ... | Hacker News

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		mannykannot on April 18, 2020 \| parent \| context \| favorite \| on: A Failure, but Not of Prediction I think there is an additional problem with "1 in 100 year" events: it looks so small that a lot of people don't realize that they are more likely than not to see it in their lifetimes.

User23 on April 18, 2020 [–]

It depends on framing. Most people would decline to play Russian roulette even with a 100 chamber cylinder with but a single live round.

throwaway_pdp09 on April 18, 2020 | [–]

Of course they would. What have they got to gain?

Now put a prize in there and I might well play.

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