Pause? There is no way I'm taking my family to a crowded restaurant until either full scale frequent testing (with intra-region travel quarantine) proves it's gone or an effective vaccine is deployed at scale, or lastly if some medicine which means you get mild symptoms and no after-effects is developed.
Man I do not believe this. The restaurant and bar industry cater to the reckless youth segment. Seeing "nothing bad happened" to people you know who are less risk-averse than you is enough to coax people back into herding into bars and restaurants. We herded for a century before anything happened and those are clear memories everyone has, too.
What is going to change is the world's attitude toward the Communist regime currently running China. I feel pretty confident in saying that that regime is slated for death, even as public officials and famous people act, in public, like they're willing to get back to normal.
This is where some of us have been for a long time. You cannot permit an intolerant, racist, minority persecuting, citizen murdering, dictatorial, totalitarian government armed to the teeth with the latest in biowarfare who is inclined to make aggressive noises towards everyone who is not like them and some who are (Taiwan) to exist, period.
I think COVID-19 finally brought that home to everyone who is not just outright anti-Western in their outlook.
People are going back to bars and restaurants and jobs, the stock market is going to go up, but the Communist regime in China is going down.
I agree with the first point regarding a low impact of risk aversion in younger demographics.
Your point on the consequences for the CCP, not so much. They have an iron grip on their people and information flows. COVID provides them with validation to tighten that grip. I think what will topple them will the be long run consequences of resource misallocation rather than anything their citizens can do. Their 'cost-to-control' is too low for civil unrest to be an issue, in my opinion.
I don't see it. We might be able to sanction China but we cannot do much more than that, and any incredibly rigid sanctions might be seen as an act of war and _nobody_ wants to fight a war with nuclear power China. Maybe it'll be a cold war, but that could take 30 or 40 years to peter out and the CCP does seem a bit more sophisticated than the Soviet's.
Not all bars and restaurants cater to "the reckless youth" segment, heck, not even most, because there simply isn't enough money in that segment to keep the industry afloat.
Wishful thinking, IMHO. Just because the CCP is Very Bad, doesn't mean they will actually fall. After all, Orange Man is Very Bad, and he hasn't fallen yet, even given repeat opportunities.
Sure. Communists gone from China by 2035. Latest. 15 years across multiple administrations across multiple nations.
It's just like before WWII. Some people see the mortal danger and realize by hook or by crook something HAS to be done. Some people are suing for "peace in our time". Only one of these camps is right. Guess which one.
Say what you want, this is something we DID learn from WWII. Know the signs and don't kid yourself about them. However bad your situation is now, it will only get worse in the future.
Covid-19 onboarded the majority of the population in all nations to this little project. Have no doubt.
The USA won't even have most of its supply chain under domestic control by 2035.
The response to the virus was typically disorganized and indicative of wider issues. The last 40 years have seen a huge slide in power and credibility, what is going to stop that?
Recapturing the supply chain is not hard to do. Even the cheerleaders from the 90s for neoliberalism, which lead to "that great sucking sound" Ross Perot warned about, now admit they made a mistake.
Formerly, before COVID-19 and China building up outcroppings of rock into military bases, and declaring the whole of the South China Sea to be their personal property, and the genocide of the Uyghurs the details of which are far far more horrifying than the average Westerner is aware of (proof on demand), before the bellicose anouncements about the upcoming "China Century" before all that... the conventional wisdom was the growing propserity of China would lead to a burgeoning middle class, which in turn would demand their human rights causing a reform of the Communist regime. That and giving China MFN status would make them behave like other nations with respect to IP laws and pirating and currency manipulation etc. etc.
It didn't happen. Instead what we got was a blustering, expanionistic kleptocracy provably willing to murder their own people, other people's people and anything else that stands in the way of the mighty Century of China, where China takes its "rightful place" as the undisputed world leader.
A treatment will be the first through the gate. Then a vaccine. But a treat will be enough to get people out again. That and the discovery through testing that people are immune.
