Should say "most confirmed" cases since the actual number of infections is completely unknown. But given the minimal testing in the US, and the failure of many state governments to suppress the transmission rate, it's hard to imagine another nation surpassing the number of US cases.
US testing started out slow but it's now up to 100,000 tests per day (and more than half a million total), which I think is the most of any country (though probably not per capita)
No, they're testing people who are a) having issues as likely infections or b) those who have been exposed.
The odds of any random person getting it are still low, especially if you're not in one of the epicenters. Testing random people would be wasting time, effort, and tests. All of which are limited.
I'm interested in the theory that a fair amount of untested people have or had it, and are mostly asymptomatic. Iceland did some work there: https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/coronavirus-testing... (Not my favorite source, but plenty of direct quotes)
That's a safe assumption since ~80% are asymptomatic and therefore probably think they don't have it or it's just a cold, allergies, etc.
That's where the "stay home!" mantra kicks in. If you have it and stay home for two weeks, maybe you infect your family but none of you infect anyone else. Therefore, it burns out without anyone else to spread to. Not a perfect world but it's the one we ahve.
As far as I'm aware, no country is doing that yet except Singapore; but fifteen minutes ago they announced that they would be supporting serological studies to reconcile the models with the numbers. You could think of the numbers we're seeing as a diagonal 2D slice on a more complex manifold: we're either seeing spread like this because there is a large mass of asymptomatic carriers, or because there are unexpectedly-tenacious mechanisms for infection.
A serological study, which you would usually only conduct post-mortem (but in light of the conditions, we may have use for an interim study), would shed light on how many people had been infected without knowledge, and give us some estimates of how infectious asymptomatic carriers are.
Short of that, in countries where testing has been highly available and unconditional, you can begin to get a picture of that; it's not as good though, since people who go for testing are still self-selecting to some extent.
Source? I can't find any information that Singapore's testing is random.
Also, if it is I stand corrected on my original statement. However, Singapore is a pretty small, cohesive nation with a strong central government. They, along with a handful of other city-states, are uniquely positioned for this. The poster child for testing-based control, South Korea, is not testing randomly. So, how is this a dig on the US?
The South China Morning Post (Hong Kong's newspaper of record) reports that China excluded 43,000 confirmed-but-asymptomatic cases from its official statistics, and kept the true number classified:
Well, if your statement is correct, then this actually lowers their death rate, the CFR (Case Fatality Ratio).
They reported 81,285 cases. So, 81,285 + 43,000 = 124,285 cases.
And 3287 deaths. So, that’s a 2.64% death rate.
At these numbers, and with the virus now worldwide, I think China’s numbers are now irrelevant. It’s better to begin focusing our energies on mitigation and containment.
I doubt China could have kept a lid on things if the virus has been spreading uncontrollably. Further, the majority of
documented cases from the peak have recovered. Which means the associated undocumented cases from then also recovered.
So, while they might have had more total cases, we likely have far more active cases.
At a certain point it's not about hiding cases, it's about hiding thousands of deaths and overwhelmed hospitals, complete with temporary tent facilities we could see easily by satellite.
Edit: Feel free to downvote this, but please offer an explanation as to precisely how China could be hiding an outbreak of any significant scale.
By just marking them down as general pneumonia like Russia probably is doing? This shit is NOT killing people at near the rate everyone is constantly panicking about.
And if anyone was going to decide not to try to ventilate every single case, it would be China, who already released a report that in 81% of cases, they die anyway.
Healthcare facilities have the capacity to match the normal needs of a community/region. They don't tend to have a ton of capacity beyond that. This is the entire problem with coronavirus. It is new diseases that requires significant additional healthcare resources beyond what currently exists in any healthcare system.
It's not just China hiding deaths. There are many more deaths in the US than reported officially. Simply no testing before they die and of course none after, then they don't count it.
Should adjust for population, but then the US will actually come out remarkably good in terms of both confirmed cases and mortality rates and whatever political/social case to be made on this will be lost.
Isn't the population density there such that a lockdown might not have the same effect it did elsewhere?
Edit: 29th ranked, behind Hong Kong, South Korea, but ahead of most other newsworthy COVID hot spots. I suspect large Indian cities are well above 29th.
"It seems this virus propagates much better in cold weather."
This hasn't been confirmed, but I've seen quotes from various professionals saying it is at least likely, and the distribution of cases certainly makes it feel true.
It's nice to hope that, but the virus doesn't seem to be struggling to spread in warm places. Curves in southern California, Louisiana, Australia are all following the standard trajectory.
I am not an expert but i am really puzzled by how one may think any goverment could stop a virus from spreading. Do you really think China managed to block the virus inside its borders when it already made it to other continents? That is utterly ridiculous.
The true numbers won't be known until serological studies are conducted. It's possible to tell who has had the virus, even months after the fact, by testing for antibodies in serum.
However, given how differently the US and China have responded to the virus, it's hard to see how the US will not surpass China (if it hasn't already done so) in total number of cases.
Japan is an enigma and I have yet to see a satisfactory explanation of how they have kept transmission and fatalities so low despite minimal government efforts.
However being here in Japan it does look like people haven’t been taking this seriously at all, not learning what is happening in other countries and how quickly it can go from negligible to nightmarish. Therefore Japan is ripe for a second wave. And it’s probably already happening...
Yes, this is what I hear from people on the ground in Japan. But, if this is the case, where are the overwhelmed hospitals? Where's the surge of respiratory-related deaths. This coronavirus has been in Japan much longer than most places, and the government efforts to suppress it have been minimal. So where is the impact we expect to see from this virus, like we have seen in Italy and Iran? It doesn't add up.
Hence why I’m not delving into theories about olympics and suppression. Simply observing the facts that confirmed cases are rising again and more rapidly, people appear too relaxed, and we’re very much at risk of a second wave and a bad one.
Hoping the medical system can cope. Hoping it won’t be a bad second wave.
The US has been doing a lot of testing for literally just a few days. Spain has over twice the testing rate (per capita) as the US, and Italy several times more than that.
I try to avoid politics here. But our current state around testing, consistent policy, communication, coordinated efforts around supply shortages, etc. I'm embarrassed to be a US citizen right now.
We could be so much better at this with really very little effort. Lots of capable people just needing direction. I wish the president would appoint a credible corona-czar and give up the microphone.
