I'm hardly the official judge of these things, but I would say it depends on how novel of an approach AlphaFold is to the problem. If it's a more efficient tool for doing the same things as before, I would put it towards the #1 end of the spectrum, unless it has also improved our basic understanding of folding or approaches to exploring the solution space of folded proteins, which would shift it towards #2.

Personally I don't know enough about AlphaFold or the problems of protein folding to be remotely confident in my judgment on it