I saw a demonstration of the Kinect at CES and I was impressed with the technology. The Kinect is a big win for Microsoft. Not only is it a commercial success, but it's also the first Microsoft product in quite some time that has captured the imagination of consumers.
Now Microsoft needs to leverage the success of the Kinect to further expand beyond the PC. An obvious direction is to use the Kinect to gain additional market share with the Xbox, since the Kinect is currently designed as a UI for this device. But I think focusing exclusively on the Xbox is a mistake. The Xbox (and other consoles and set-top boxes) may soon get enveloped and displaced by other technologies, particularly connected TVs.
I suggest that Microsoft leverage the Kinect as an element in a coherent connected TV strategy. Connected TVs are just emerging, and there is still time to match the developments of Google, Apple, and others in this space. To enter the connected TV market, Microsoft needs to quickly develop a connected TV OS, forge relationships with app developers, and acquire or partner with content providers (e.g., Netflix, OnLive.com). This is all feasible given Microsoft's significant software expertise and its existing relationships (e.g., with Netflix, game developers, etc).
Microsoft has been struggling to gain leadership in markets outside the PC. For instance, it's behind in smartphones, tablets, and portable media players. The Kinect could give Microsoft the edge to dominate the emerging connected TV market. The technology strikes me as an excellent UI for the 10-foot viewing experience, especially for interactive media. It can then leverage success in this market to gain further ground in related connected device markets. I think there is a significant opportunity here. Thoughts?
They won't be able to do any of this, or exploit any of the frankly enormous potential of the device, unless they can pry the Kinect out of the clutches of the Entertainment division. They only care about selling Xboxes.
The entertainment division operates WP7 and consumer software (as stated in the article), so what makes you think this division only cares about selling XBox?
Microsoft (from my understanding) doesn't have exclusive rights to the Kinect tech, just for it's use in certain applications, but with the relationship that Microsoft has PrimeSense (the company which created much of the kinect technology), I'm sure groups outside of just the Entertainment division are looking at ways to leverage the tech and relationship.
The brilliant hacking that is going on with kinect show just how valuable this tech can be in different uses. I'm sure microsoft will be leveraging much of this for ideas. Hopefully they'll be getting into the acquisition game and picking up some of these hackers to continue to create great experiences with kinect on platforms other than xbox.
> The entertainment division operates WP7 and consumer software (as stated in the article), so what makes you think this division only cares about selling XBox?
Chatting to a 'Softie who was complaining about this specific problem. Specifically that they're only interested in Kinect applications which will sell Xboxes, because that's how the ownership is organised. I didn't query too much further, it all sounded too painful...
It's easy to say that Microsoft needs to "leverage" the connect in a "coherent connected TV strategy", but what does that actually mean when you get down to it?
I've got a connect, I like it a lot, but I'm completely at a loss for how it would be useful while watching TV. And don't say something about replacing the TV remote with gestures. That's just stupid. Nobody wants the volume on their TV to suddenly shoot up just because they accidentally flung their hand in the wrong direction.
If the Kinect gets a lot better and more accurate it could be a good interface for controller a TV connected browser or some kind of apps displayed on a TV screen. But right now navigating game menus with the Kinect is rather frustratingly wonky.
Personally, I don't think the TV makers will be smart enough for a while to open their platforms to software developers in a way that is attractive enough for developers to really embrace it. It'll be to the Android Market what the Android Market is to the iOS App Store. Android Market seems to be just about good enough, whereas the App Store is a roaring success. Anything worse than the Android Market is probably going to be a failure.
And: Software? Yes, software. It's playing an increasingly large role in all consumer electronics. When I look at the average TV's kafkaesque OSD menus I have very little faith that they won't fuck up something more complicated. Even if Android develops a big screen offshoot, most TV makers will fuck up the implementation, if the majority of Android phones and tablets is anything to go by. The mindset of the hardware makers still is such that the software is an afterthought. It's increasingly becoming the make or break component.
The current lot of "smart" TVs certainly reflects that attitude - they can't even get web browsing right on a most basic level.
This gives Apple, Boxee, etc. a chance to establish themselves in that market with boxes that are separate from the TV itself. Game consoles are in that category as well, except they're expensive and (still) have a "gamer" stigma associated with them. I understand the Xbox's non-game UI is actually pretty good, so Microsoft could probably release a cheap Xbox without the expensive CPU, GPU and DVD drive, which does everything but play (AAA) games. Extend XBLA to non-game apps. And for god's sake don't call it Xbox, that will transfer the stigma.
Btw, Sony will probably miss this opportunity because their TV division is separate from the PlayStation one. And Nintendo, well, no idea. They don't really seem to get the Internet. But they've surprised us before. (they have the Opera browser on the Wii!)
> And Nintendo, well, no idea. They don't really seem to get the Internet. But they've surprised us before. (they have the Opera browser on the Wii!)
Nintendo is certainly apart from the rest of the herd. I feel like they are positioning themselves as a "social" gaming company. I don't mean "social" as in Facebook, but more like those experiences people had playing NES games with their friends next to them on the couch.
Their platform encourages multiplayer games to be played on the same screen. The N64 was the first console to have four controller ports (the SNES had an expander peripheral as well). Their Pokemon games promote sharing and playing with friends over ad-hoc wifi. They have eschewed standard support for a headset, making multiplayer-online games (SSMB:M and Mario Kart comes to mind) like playing against more challenging AI. Super Mario Galaxy 1/2 are great games, and are made even greater by allowing two people on the same couch to work together.
I'm certain that the company understands the importance of the internet (the Wii store is nothing to write home about, but it's certainly good enough). I think that they've decided that internet gaming is not a place that they want to be (for better or worse).
Yeah, having worked on a Wii game I know all too well what their policies on internet multiplayer are. In this context though, I guess I meant that they don't seem to be terribly interested in developing their consoles beyond mere game machines and bringing internet-based services into the living room. Then again, they're practically printing money, so who am I to criticise.
As another voice on the subject - I like the concept but struggle with the execution.
Net result, I actually run a basic low-power PC alongside my TV, 99% used just to provide 'connected TV' services. Works very nicely and avoids compatibility issues because it's absolutely just another PC so the standard services such as the BBC iPlayer, YouTube and Justin.TV all work fine.
I just bought one a couple of weeks ago, and I think it's a revolution in computer human interaction.
After the first few times you play with the Kinect, you stop thinking "Holy crap, I'm waving my hands, and the computer responds", and you simply start playing the games. On Dance Central, the interface is quite seamless. I'm eagerly looking forward to thinks like fightings games, although I'm going to have to get in much better shape. That is, in fact, my only hesitation that I have with the device: I get tired a lot faster playing games on the device.
I've heard rumors that they are going to be releasing an SDK for Win7, and the Win8 is going to have drivers built in. I'll be first in line to buy an extra Kinect per PC if that happens.
There's still a ton of room for refinement, and the UI/UX designers are going to have a lot of room to learn, grow and play with a new interface, but as version 1.0 of a new way to interact with a computer, I think it kicks ass.
I'm going to have to get in much better shape. That is, in fact, my only hesitation that I have with the device: I get tired a lot faster playing games on the device.
Well, some fitness focused developer might read this and think "mission accomplished."
I think there's tremendous potential for a combination of real-time strategy and fighting games with this interface. Already, fighting games are about deploying "moves" which play out in a certain time frame. Fighting games which deploy moves based on forms from martial arts are an obvious first step. Increasing strategy elements and departing from close correspondence to hand-to-hand combat would open up an entire new genre of games. Perhaps adapt the rules of Magic the Gathering to real-time play and parameterize the strength of cards according to the correct execution of forms from martial arts? I think the result could look like the magic battles from "Big Trouble in Little China."
As a Kinect owner, the one thing that bugs me about it at the moment is the inconsistency of the menu UX between games. Kinect Adventures has the best menu interactions (you hold your hand out, palm towards the TV, to select menu items and hold to confirm, a.k.a. using the force). Kinect Sports's menu UX is not quite as good and Dance Central is so-so. Sonic Freeriders, however, has one of the most appalling menu systems ever to be invented by mankind, to the extent that it takes minutes to navigate the menu. This, coupled with its poor body tracking, makes the game frustrating and unplayable.
Obviously, this is a completely new era of menu design, and it will probably settle down soon to a standard-ish menu design, but I wish the game publishers would resist the temptation to come up with whacky UI metaphors just because they can.
This sort of wording was what lead me to believe the Kinect could actually track hands. I tried three games, and none of them tracked my fingers or the rotation of my hands at all.
Kinect loves hands. It seeks out hands in everything it sees. If you look at the greyscale video box, the moment a hand is in view it will glow white.
It might not be down to the finger level yet (I don't know) but it can certainly recognise hands to a great level of precision. The Kinect Sports bowling game, for example, is very accurate at tracking the path of your hand.
Are you talking about the orientation of the hand relative to your lower arm, or the position of your hand in space? An easy test is to twist your hand while moving no other part of your body. If the Kinect game tracks your hand, this should be reflected in your avatar.
edited to add: quote from someone on the Kinect Sports team:
And while designers admit that, unlike Wii MotionPlus bowling, the game can't track spin based upon a twist of my wrist—instead you exaggerate the motion within the entire scope of your swing—the flexibility keeps me immersed.
This was a huge disappointment to me when trying out Kinect Sports bowling. Wii bowling's ability to accurately track wrist twists made if feel a lot like real bowling. Kinect bowling doesn't feel like bowling at all. :-(
I've noticed several games that can at least track the plane of your hand. My wife and I were playing some volleyball in Kinect Sports the other night, and it definitely was mimic-ing the movements of how we held our hands (ie, palm down, palm up, etc).
The tiredness is great news. Wii fit was a workout at first, but after a week i got good at the controls and realized low energy techniques to do most things and wii fit was just a fancy tracking weight scale that had a pushup game. It poops out kids faster and makes video gamers less sedentary. I wonder after you get good at them if they would ever really tire you out?
>"Microsoft sold 6.3 million XBox 360 consoles during the holiday season"
That's within about 10% of the number of iPads Apple moved during the same period. That seems pretty extraordinary for a consumer electronics product that's over five years old. Considering the additional sale of 8 million Kinects during the same period, the combined revenue number would appear to be in the same ballpark as those of the iPad (~$400-$600 per unit times 7 million units).
Jaron Lanier recently gave a talk at UCSB, and he mentioned that Microsoft is be funding a lab he's setting up in SF to explore new avenues of perception opened up by Kinnect. He mentioned using it to see the world as a lobster, or understand say perhaps a mathematical function by translating body movements to avatar changes.
That's not a good comparison. iPhones don't belong to the consumer electronics category. Also, the majority iPhone sales are on an upgrade of a previous version as well.
In Comments
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When disagreeing, please reply to the argument instead
of calling names. E.g. "That is an idiotic thing to
say; 1 + 1 is 2, not 3" can be shortened to "1 + 1 is
2, not 3."
There is no need to imply that someone is on drugs to be making an assertion with which you disagree, and the antagonistic tone tends to create argument and not discussion. Perhaps better would be to ask for the reasoning behind the position held.
"I would've thought that iPhones do belong to the consumer electronics category. Could you explain otherwise?"
Such an open question tends to foster constructive discussion.
Your point needs answering, but I suggest there are better ways to make it.
I bought a Kinect release week and to me - its a <Steve Jobs>magical device</Steve Jobs> that's just not quite ready yet - but it has absolutely enormous potential.
When I first hooked it up and put in the sports game there's a definite "holy shit" moment when you realize that moving to your left and right and aiming your kicks in the soccer game actually works. You can take two or three steps to the left, around a defender and then kick the ball with the appropriate foot, in the air or on the ground, etc and it works, well. As someone who writes software for a living it was a feeling I haven't had with a hardware/software combo in a long time.
On the other hand there are parts of the experience that just aren't there yet. One of parts that seemed to have the most potential was the 10 foot interface - controlling ESPN and your dashboard without ever touching a controller. Unfortunately this just isn't very good. Its finicky and much less efficient than just using a controller. I tried it for a few days before going back to a normal controller or the occasional voice command. To me - this is the part of the experience that needs the most work.
I can easily see the Kinect being a revolutionary technology as it evolves and improves - it already is one for games, but its not quite there yet in my opinion.
Is it a possibility that Peter Klein is pulling this out of his ass? I've yet to see a Kinect at a house / dorm, but when Furbys (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Furby) came out, boy were they everywhere.
I've got one - my first console purchase since a Sega Dreamcast in the 90s. I think the more people that experience playing them, the more they're going to sell.
I love the work coming out of that lab! Everyone on DIYDrones said that the kinect wouldn't work on a small quadrocopter and then BAM only a week later we get a video proving them wrong. Very impressive!
Right now it seems to be really trendy with teenagers and kids. I'm sure many families have purchased them but I think there are significantly more teen hipsters that have jumped onboard ATM.
I would think it's the same kind of people who bought the Wii. I'm planning to pick up a Kinect, and I also stood in line at 3AM to buy a Wii that first Christmas (the first dedicated video game machine I'd owned since the Atari 2600).
But, so far, the games for Kinect look dull. I'm waiting for the equivalent of Resident Evil 4 on the Wii, which is one of the most enjoyable gaming experiences I've had in ages. Sports and fitness and dance games are fun, and I have bought some of those kinds of games on the Wii, but I don't really feel they justify adding more junk to my house. Hell, if they'd come out with another credible RE title, or some other really high quality shooter, I'd buy it. But, the Wii hardware just isn't up to spec for modern games.
So, yeah, I agree with you. I don't think Kinect is hard core gamers, just like hard core gamers didn't necessarily buy Wii.
I don't have a theory. I was simply stating my experiences with Kinect owners; most of them were teen hipsters. I never said that this was the actual statistic (seeing as I don't even have numeric data to back my opinion).
It was more the hipster bit that I was querying ... the definition (or at least use) appears to have altered a lot in the last couple of years. I think you mean what I'd call a "fashion victim".
I assume it's average sales over a period of time, but who decides on the period? 1 week, 1 month, 2 months or 1 year?
assuming all these 8 million were sold to consumers (and not just 'in the channel'), then that's a bit over 133k/day which, while still a massive amount, is still less than what the iPhone 4 is selling
I'm not trying to downplay these figures, just saying if you're going to award yourself an accolade like that, you need to be able to specify how you measured it
I agree, the claim sounds like PR hype. It's a great device but the initial market is primarily XBox owners which is by definition a limited pool. The article suggests XBox sales last year were largely driven by the cheaper XBox slim, not by the $150 Kinect. It'll be interesting to see how it drives 360 sales this year, particularly after the inevitable price drop to $99.
But not in the millions. I'd be surprised if more than 10,000 sales were to people doing "hacking" of the device.
[Not that there's much to "hack" -- all you have to do is open up streams on the thing. It just took someone to replay the initialization and grok the stream format.]
While the Kinect is very cool technology indeed, it seems a bit deceiving to me when they trumpet a peripheral as the fastest selling electronics device. Were it not for the install base of Xbox 360s, it would not likely have such an rapid adoption rate.
Again, it is phenomenal technology, I do not mean to demean it on a technical level, and it is still a great achievement, but it seems a bit sensationalist to me when they laud a peripheral like it is a standalone device when in this case, the high sales volume can be largely attributed to the existing consumer device on which it piggybacks to inflate sales. Just my thoughts though.
My roommate has it at home, for fitness related games I think it's a godsend, but then again the Wii has already taken that with games like Wii Fit. Being a video game aficionado I'm scared that this is going to replace controller-based games with the advent of Move and the WiiMote as well. I might have to go to the handheld market for less gimmicky gaming depending on what the next gen holds.
I think it is also fair to say the kinect is revolutionizing computer vision.
And as someone addicted to Minecraft I have to think that kinect controls forcing you to make swinging full body motions to dig would provide quite a workout.
I am waiting for the Kinect to be helmet-mounted and become night-vision goggles. It can craw a 3d representation of what you see in the night - and can identify human forms, which can be tied to a targeting system.
(think robocop, where he enters the warehouse and targets all the thugs really quickly)
Given the Israeli company that created the kinnect - and all the autonomous robots it has already been mounted to, this is not far off.
Now Microsoft needs to leverage the success of the Kinect to further expand beyond the PC. An obvious direction is to use the Kinect to gain additional market share with the Xbox, since the Kinect is currently designed as a UI for this device. But I think focusing exclusively on the Xbox is a mistake. The Xbox (and other consoles and set-top boxes) may soon get enveloped and displaced by other technologies, particularly connected TVs.
I suggest that Microsoft leverage the Kinect as an element in a coherent connected TV strategy. Connected TVs are just emerging, and there is still time to match the developments of Google, Apple, and others in this space. To enter the connected TV market, Microsoft needs to quickly develop a connected TV OS, forge relationships with app developers, and acquire or partner with content providers (e.g., Netflix, OnLive.com). This is all feasible given Microsoft's significant software expertise and its existing relationships (e.g., with Netflix, game developers, etc).
Microsoft has been struggling to gain leadership in markets outside the PC. For instance, it's behind in smartphones, tablets, and portable media players. The Kinect could give Microsoft the edge to dominate the emerging connected TV market. The technology strikes me as an excellent UI for the 10-foot viewing experience, especially for interactive media. It can then leverage success in this market to gain further ground in related connected device markets. I think there is a significant opportunity here. Thoughts?