yes I think negative SEO is effective. Context matters though, it's probably more effective against newer sites, sites with a weak backlink profile, and sites with more "naturally spammy" content like SEO.
Exactly - a negative seo campaign against... REI’s website as a random example won’t do much.
But it’s not impossible to nuke a new-ish domain or a small business’s domain with tons of bad links through spam services if you know what you’re doing.