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> Future money is similar to saying well "if I won the lottery tomorrow".

Eh, expected value is a thing. If you lay 3:1 odds on a coin flip and then win, you get real money and are free to feel all happy about it, but you still made a poor decision.

If an employee has an FAANG offer for 300k but goes with a startup for 100k+options they are absolutely taking a risk. The expected value of those options is very real and relevant.



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