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> The farmer may do better to unload his hens, life off of cattle for a few years, and then move back to hens.

This is only true if the farmer can predict the future.




This whole discussion is based on an indicator that people believe is yelling at us "the price of X is about to fall".


There's always some indicator which yells that, I don't see any reason to believe this one over any of the other ones.

There's been a consistent drumbeat since the end of the great recession that "the next big drop is coming, just look at this chart!". Spoiler alert, they were all wrong.


Most likely not wrong. Simply too early.


They were absolutely wrong. Their claim was that a specific line on a chart held deeper meaning, despite having no basis in science. They were totally incorrect.

Don't let these charlatans off the hook, they largely have no idea how the market works.




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