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> Maybe a spike takes a week. Maybe a spike takes an hour. I can't estimate that.

Timebox it then! If you think the spike is going to take a day, and it turns out you'd need a week to even get the prototype working, then that's a successful spike -- you dramatically increased the lower bound on your estimate.

(Sadly by the asymmetry of estimation it seldom happens that you think it's going to take 5d and it ends up taking just 1d).



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