> Even bad estimates are better than no estimates.
I disagree. The only bad estimates that are ok have to error on the high side. I have found that biz side may not like the longer estimate, but they much prefer that over missing a date.
Right. If they asked for a 95% confidence number, they would get something to depend on more whole heartedly. But that date will be too far in the future to be comfortable.
So they look for more of a natural median. And then are shocked when dates are missed more than half of the time (!).
So if you want honesty, ask for estimate ranges or 95% sure estimates. Then pareto your plan to hell and back so everyone understands the risk. Then reestimate periodically as you home in on completion.
I disagree. The only bad estimates that are ok have to error on the high side. I have found that biz side may not like the longer estimate, but they much prefer that over missing a date.