All of this is true, but I'll point out that for crypto, your competition is "I heard it was hot on Reddit/Telegram", and if it's not that it's often "I buy $X worth of Bitcoin on the first of every month". I suspect that a random algorithm (like, literally buys & sells random amounts of cryptos at random times) would do better than the average crypto trader, simply because the "I heard it was hot" strategy inherently leads towards buy-high-sell-low behavior.