As somebody who worked in OEM electronics since my first real job 12 ago, I can say for sure that manufacturing in China was on a downward slope since it peaked at around 2010.
A way more alarming indicator is the receding semiconductor spendings, both net and capital, for the last 3-4 years.
This means that not only stuff generally classified as "light industry goods" going down. It means that big players in the industry expect much more "inelastic goods" like server chips, telecom gear, and other businessy/enterprise stuff to also go down.
To a lot of people, it was clear that we are heading for "a long winter" in the industry for quite some time. People saw it as early as 2016.
2016 you started seeing lead times for a whole variety of ordinary semiconductors and discretes stretch way out. I think they were expecting a recession but demand continued.
Feels like manufacturers are edgy and don't want to get caught out.
I think in 2001 3Com got stuck with a $1 Billion worth of inventory that had to be scrapped. Sales of durable goods tend to fall off a cliff during recessions.
A way more alarming indicator is the receding semiconductor spendings, both net and capital, for the last 3-4 years.
This means that not only stuff generally classified as "light industry goods" going down. It means that big players in the industry expect much more "inelastic goods" like server chips, telecom gear, and other businessy/enterprise stuff to also go down.
To a lot of people, it was clear that we are heading for "a long winter" in the industry for quite some time. People saw it as early as 2016.