> My impression was it was a little more political and complicated than that [0]. I mean, if it was technically time to shut down the reactors then somebody obviously screwed up - but Germany isn't a great place to be citing examples from because their government has obviously been a massive headache for anyone planning out a nuclear reactor's lifespan.
In 2000 the phase-out was decided (the negotiations between the companies and the government started in 1998). The nuclear companies didn't do anything to prepare for it, but instead hoped that a government lead by the CDU (conservatives) would cancel it. In 2009 with a government formed between CDU and FDP (market liberals) they got their wish and it seemed their lack of preparing worked. Unfortunately for them in 2011 Fukushima happened and even the CDU couldn't just ignore anymore that the citizens don't like nuclear power very much (They lost Baden-Württemberg to the Greens shortly after, something unthinkable a few years before that) and reinstated the phase-out.
So, no, it's really not more complicated than that. From 2000 on the writing was on the wall and instead of preparing for it the companies just sat on their hands and hoped for the best.
So if they had been diligently saving until 2009, then cleared out their financial buffer in 2010, they would quite reasonably be caught flat-footed in 2011?
What is being described here is a problem, but it is not a technical problem and it is iffy to blame corporate wrongdoing. I've literally done rehab planning; these are short time frames and are clearly being driven by politics not technical planning.
Decommissioning isn't something that gets done for fun. Companies need time. It seems completely reasonable that they borrowed the money to decommissioning rather than having it on hand.
> So if they had been diligently saving until 2009, then cleared out their financial buffer in 2010, they would quite reasonably be caught flat-footed in 2011?
If - sure. And if they hadn't lobbied the CDU/FDP for years to take it back it probably wouldn't have happened. Many ifs. But they didn't save up and they did lobby both parties.
In 2000 the phase-out was decided (the negotiations between the companies and the government started in 1998). The nuclear companies didn't do anything to prepare for it, but instead hoped that a government lead by the CDU (conservatives) would cancel it. In 2009 with a government formed between CDU and FDP (market liberals) they got their wish and it seemed their lack of preparing worked. Unfortunately for them in 2011 Fukushima happened and even the CDU couldn't just ignore anymore that the citizens don't like nuclear power very much (They lost Baden-Württemberg to the Greens shortly after, something unthinkable a few years before that) and reinstated the phase-out.
So, no, it's really not more complicated than that. From 2000 on the writing was on the wall and instead of preparing for it the companies just sat on their hands and hoped for the best.