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Lottery tickets cost you money up front and have a defined possible upside. Neither of those is true of equity.

The uncertainty of startup equity makes it impossible to do the same probable value calculations you can do on lottery tickets.



Options are worse because they cost you money year after year: the difference in salary you could have made instead of taking a job that offered those options in lieu of a market salary.

If im offered a job that comes with options but pays $1000/yr less than I’m making now, I have to ask myself: why not just keep my current job and spend that $1000/yr on an investment with similar risk/reward profile? If I’m willing to do that then I should just keep my job and buy that investment. If I’m not willing to do that, than I shouldn’t take the job, because that’s in essence what it would mean. In either case I shouldn’t take the job.




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