Compare this to cars. Every year in the US there are about 6 million car crashes, 3 million injured people, and about 33,000 dead people (so, imagine a city like Dover, Delaware being wiped off the face of the earth every year).
The most typical causes are alcohol, speeding, and reckless driving. In addition, seat belts cut the risk of death by 45%. So, if we wanted to keep people safe the way we do for airlines, we would just attack these four problems.
There are many solutions, but the simplest ones would involve 1) a mandatory breathalyzer, 2) speed limiters, 3) sensors that shut down the car when reckless driving is detected, and 4) shutting down the car if seatbelts are not used. These all exist today, and would save tens of thousands of lives a year, and prevent millions of casualties, lawsuits, traffic jams, etc.
Why don't we do these things? My theory is the illusion of safety. In a car, you're wrapped inside 2 tons of steel and plastic, and you feel safe. Even if you know other people are dying inside, you feel like it won't happen to you. So we don't worry, so we don't care about changing things to save lives, because it'd be an inconvenience. But in an airplane, you're not in control; some pilot is. And you're hurtling along at at 500 miles per hour, 40,000 feet above the sky. That's scary. We better make sure those planes are safe.
I think another aspect of it is the auto industry's reluctance to admit that cars are dangerous. Before seatbelts were introduced, manufacturers didn't want to include any overt safety systems, because they introduced the idea that we needed protection from the cars. There were no dangerous cars, just bad drivers. There's a great 99% invisible episode about it: https://99percentinvisible.org/episode/nut-behind-wheel/
i remember reading about airplane accidents almost always being labeled as "human error", as it's cheaper to replace pilots than it's to replace whole airplanes.
> Why don't we do these things? My theory is the illusion of safety.
Because all those cars aren't carrying paying passengers. The rules are much stricter for vehicles that do. Similarly, the rules for private aircraft that don't carry paying passengers are much looser than those for commmercial aircraft that do. This has nothing to do with an "illusion of safety"; it's a simple principal-agent problem.
Are you advocating that private vehicles (cars, airplanes, whatever) that don't carry paying passengers should be held to the same rules as commercial vehicles that do?
> we don't care about changing things to save lives, because it'd be an inconvenience
No, it would be much more than an inconvenience: it would be a drastic increase in the power of governments that are already too powerful. Who is going to mandate all these things? Who is going to decide what counts as a proper breathalyzer, proper reckless driving detector, etc.? If you think a government regulatory agency can be trusted to make those decisions responsibly and not get captured by the industry, I have some oceanfront property in Montana I'd like to sell you. I don't want some regulator mandating such "features" in my own car. I'll take responsibility for safe driving on myself, thank you.
The question that should be asked is, why do we allow such power to regulatory agencies for commercial vehicles? After all, as someone else commented upthread, a regulatory agency that was protecting people's interests shouldn't have needed a fatal accident to convince them to impose stricter requirements; so the regulatory agency is not a perfect solution here either. And the answer is, as I said above, that there's a principal-agent problem in that case that doesn't exist for personal vehicles, and nobody has come up with a better way to address it. But there might well be one that we just haven't figured out yet.
> I don't want some regulator mandating such "features" in my own car.
I hate to tell you this, but unless you bought a pre-1966 vehicle, there are already regulators mandating safety features on your car.
> I'll take responsibility for safe driving on myself, thank you.
As long as someone else is out there who can run into me through no fault of my own, I'd like some assurances that their vehicle has safety features that will protect me.
> there are already regulators mandating safety features on your car.
Yes, I know that. That doesn't mean I agree with it.
> As long as someone else is out there who can run into me through no fault of my own, I'd like some assurances that their vehicle has safety features that will protect me.
They won't. Even with all the safety features that are mandated, someone else can still injure or kill you in a collision through no fault of your own. The main things protecting you are safety features in your car, but if they're actually going to protect you, why do you need regulations to get you to buy them? Wouldn't you be willing to pay for them anyway?
> the simplest ones would involve 1) a mandatory breathalyzer, 2) speed limiters, 3) sensors that shut down the car when reckless driving is detected, and 4) shutting down the car if seatbelts are not used.
1) Some (many?) states require drivers with a history of convinced DUI/DWI to get these systems installed. From articles I've read, they're rather a PITA -- it takes a lot of breath pressure, and you may be prompted at random times as you drive down the road. This seems reasonable for someone with a history of drunk driving, but for the majority of drivers who don't drive drunk, it would be a major turnoff; people would likely just drive pre-mandate cars for as long it takes to get the mandate overturned.
2) Let me know when you have a system that can determine what speed is "reasonable or prudent having due regard for weather, visibility, the traffic on, and the surface and width of, the highway". If you want to put a limiter at 100 mph, that's OK with me -- setting up the gearing so above say 80mph is unattainable seems reasonable too. It's very rarely reasonable or prudent to travel at that speed on public highways. The posted speed limit may offer a suggestion of what's reasonable or prudent, but it's very often not the case.
3) What do you propose here, that doesn't shut down my car when I'm avoiding a road hazard? Hooning feels like something where you can know it when you see it, but may be hard for a sensor system to detect accurately. Doing donuts in a field with no one around isn't unsafe. Doing it in the middle of an open freeway is. If we were able to compute this type of decision, we wouldn't have human drivers, and hooning would be dead. It also presupposed that there's a reasonable way to shutdown a car without consent of the driver that's safer than whatever the driver is currently doing.
4) I can't believe people would drive very far with all the godawful alerts that go on when you drive any distance with the seatbelts off. Again though, it's a question of is it safer to stop the vehicle without the consent of the driver or to let them continue to drive and annoy them into compliance.
some (many?) states require drivers with a history of convinced DUI/DWI to get these systems installed
But mandatory breathalyzers in all cars would prevent the initial DUI offense. If they were mandatory in all cars, car makers would make them more convenient, so maybe instead of blowing into a tube, you just have to blow at a sensor in the sunvisor.
The posted speed limit may offer a suggestion of what's reasonable or prudent, but it's very often not the case
But it's a good first step - set the max speed for cars at the posted speed limit, subtract 10% at night, 10% more for rain, 20% more for snow (so for example, a 60mph road would have a max speed of 55mph at night, 50mph during rain, and 40mph during snow)
Note that these are still just "maximums" and the onus would be on drivers to go slower when conditions warrant.
What do you propose here, that doesn't shut down my car when I'm avoiding a road hazard?
Cars are getting more autonomous, so having it drive to the side of the road or to the nearest exist if on a freeway seems like the obvious choice.
As for seatbelts, I think the driver should be free to choose to use them or not, but only as long as they get signoff from their insurance company. Whether or not a driver uses a seatbelt only affects himself, unlike DUI, speeding or wreckless driving.
No, it isn't; it's whatever the locality decides is a good setpoint for a revenue source. Most "speed limits" have nothing to do with safety.
Even on interstate highways, where the "revenue source" motivation is the least, many speed limits are still too low given the improvements in vehicle handling and performance since the 55 mph rule was arbitrarily selected in the early 1970s. Of course, that argument assumes that 55 mph was reasonable for early 1970s cars--but if the primary purpose is safety, well, there are still traffic deaths at the current speed limits, so why not lower them further? Why not stop people from driving at all, if nothing short of that will eliminate traffic deaths?
That kind of argument leads down a rabbit hole. I think a much better way of viewing things, as I said in another comment upthread, is in terms of a principal-agent problem. If you are driving yourself (or flying yourself, for that matter), you can make your own judgments about safety (and take the consequences). But if you are flying (or driving) other people for money, then you have to abide by an explicit set of standards because it's no longer just you who takes the consequences if you make an error of judgment. And the more people who are endangered if you make an error, the more stringent the standards should be.
> since the 55 mph rule was arbitrarily selected in the early 1970s
It was selected in 1974 in response to the 1973 oil crisis in the hope of reducing oil consumption. 55 was intended as a speed that delivers best mpg for typical 1970s vehicles.
Seems like your objection would be solved by the proposal.
Towns would no longer have this bullshit revenue source, and might actually set the limits to a reasonable level instead of one intended to make you screw up.
> Seems like your objection would be solved by the proposal.
No, it wouldn't. In fact the proposal would make things worse, because it would give an even greater level of control to governments than they have now. Right now, all they can do is give me a ticket if I'm speeding. Under this proposal, they would be able to remove control of my car from me altogether based on some arbitrary limit. That is thousands of disasters waiting to happen.
> Towns would no longer have this bullshit revenue source, and might actually set the limits to a reasonable level instead of one intended to make you screw up.
You have much more faith than I do in the ability of the government to know better what is reasonable and prudent under a given set of conditions than the person actually driving the car in those conditions. Not to mention their ability to ensure a safe implementation of the actual mechanics of the proposal.
I have a lot more faith in road engineers than individual drivers on determining safe limits. Untrained individuals are pretty crap at this, especially in areas they're unfamiliar with - an out-of-town visitor can hardly know that there's a low-visibility hairpin turn coming up.
Removing the perverse revenue incentives of artificially low limits seems like a good step.
> I have a lot more faith in road engineers than individual drivers on determining safe limits.
The road engineers aren't there. The driver is. Also, the road engineers suffer no consequences if the limits are wrong.
> Untrained individuals are pretty crap at this
Perhaps. If so, I think it's because individuals have no voice in determining the limits, and they know the limits are bogus anyway, so they don't view exceeding them as an error, they just view it as a game they're playing vs. the police. In other words, since there is no reward for exercising better individual judgment, and the penalties are unrelated to the quality of an individual's judgment, there is no incentive for individuals to develop better judgment.
> an out-of-town visitor can hardly know that there's a low-visibility hairpin turn coming up.
That's what warning signs are for. There's no need for it to be a speed limit; just a "caution, hairpin turn" sign is enough.
> Removing the perverse revenue incentives of artificially low limits seems like a good step.
The way to remove those incentives is to stop allowing governments to penalize people who have caused no harm. Sure, put up a sign that says that, according to our best qualified road engineers, the maximum safe speed for this road is x. (For bonus points, make the sign programmable so the posted limit can vary with weather conditions, day vs. night, etc.) But don't allow the government to give me a ticket and make me pay a fine just because I exceed speed x. If I cause an accident and it's found that I exceeded speed x, then the government can penalize me--but penalize me because I caused harm (and, if you like, tack on an extra penalty because I ignored the advisory sign and my error of judgment contributed to the harm).
They were there when the road was designed and built, and they did various calculations based on actual physics, road width, medians, upcoming intersections, etc. to determine a limit. "Eh, this feels like a 75" from an untrained driver with three big accidents on their record shouldn't be of equal value.
> Also, the road engineers suffer no consequences if the limits are wrong.
Real engineers have liability and licensing implications for fucking up.
> If so, I think it's because individuals have no voice in determining the limits...
Nor should they, really, as they're supposed to be based on empirical data about the nature of the road. Your attitude reminds me of this New Yorker comic: https://www.newyorker.com/cartoon/a20630
> That's what warning signs are for. There's no need for it to be a speed limit; just a "caution, hairpin turn" sign is enough.
There are several tight turns near my house. One's a 25 mph one, another is a 15 mph one. Even as a local, I find the numbers a handy reminder; there's absolutely no way a non-local would be able to figure out which turn should be taken at which speed.
> "Eh, this feels like a 75" from an untrained driver with three big accidents on their record shouldn't be of equal value.
Any such driver should have already suffered enough consequences from three big accidents to have changed their behavior. And if they haven't changed their behavior, how is a speeding ticket (which costs a lot less than three big accidents) supposed to?
> Real engineers have liability and licensing implications for fucking up.
For things like bridges and buildings, yes. And for consequences that are easily seen, yes. But what consequences do road engineers suffer if they set the speed limit on a road too low, forcing people to take more time and burn more gas?
> There are several tight turns near my house. One's a 25 mph one, another is a 15 mph one.
Yes, turn warning signs with a safe speed recommendation included. No problem there. But can you get a ticket if you go around the turn at a higher speed than posted, but don't cause any harm? (As I understand it, you can't; the speeds on those yellow warning signs, unlike the ones on the white speed limit signs, are advisory only and you can't be ticketed just for exceeding them. Which is exactly the kind of thing I'm advocating, just for all limits.)
It's hard to tell from a posted limit sign if an engineer was involved. Or, if the engineer was directed to a target limit rather than allowed to find the appropriate limit based only on the road design and such.
No, just an even worse power put in the hands of governments.
Try this thought experiment: suppose we are at some point in the future, when self-driving cars are ubiquitous and are proven to be safer than human-driven cars. Do you want governments to have the ability to force your self-driving car to do something based on some arbitrary setting of a limit, controlled by government bureaucrats? Or do you want to have control over what algorithms your self-driving car runs and what actions it takes if it detects a problem?
> Or do you want to have control over what algorithms your self-driving car runs and what actions it takes if it detects a problem?
I'd rather not be driving in a world where the other drivers get to pick the "run a family off a cliff if it prevents a bumper dint on my vehicle" algorithm.
I want everyone's cars to follow the same rules, I don't want individual people modding their cars to obey only the laws they like or to behave differently than everyone else's cars.
Sounds like you have a hard-on for the government.
The federal government already regulates motor carriers, including inspections by federal and state regulatory bodies. They understand how to predict risk for vehicle operations, and can scale that assessment up to massive fleets like UPS or USPS or down to an individual vehicle operator.
End of the day, individuals on average are awful at risk assessment and consistent behavior. To borrow another phrase, brakes are what allow cars to drive faster.
yeah, I think it's the difference in opinion between those that see cars only as transportation, and those that see driving as an experience itself.
I'm happy to give up control of driving if it means car travel is safer and more convenient, just like I'm happy to get on a train, bus, or airplane and let someone else drive (under high regulation - I don't want my pilot to decide on his own that ATC is being ridiculously conservative and there's plenty of room for him to land between two A380's).
The posted speed limit is some information, but more important are things like size of the lanes, visibility, amount of other traffic, separation from the other direction of traffic, separation from non motorized road users, curves in the road, pavement condition, etc.
If US-101 in Sunnyvale were posted for 45 mph, that wouldn't be a reasonable and prudent limit; it's got lots of separation and wide lanes, and the pavement is ok -- traffic permitting, you can travel at high speeds. If it were posted at 80 mph, it wouldn't be reasonable and prudent either -- the pavement isn't that great (unless it was repaved recently), most cars would be bumping around too much at that speed.
Moreover, I don't know who would purchase a car that promised to strictly follow posted speed limits, when they have alternatives.
Unlike cars, all commercial airliner ops are under instrument flight rules -- meaning positive control by ATC at all times.
Speed and heading are all known. Mandatory spacing and separation minimums are enforced, ATC calls out traffic and any re-routing from the flight plan requires clearance. While in cruise, autopilot use is generally required.
If we had to file a driving plan, get clearance, wait for a departure slot, and use cruise control/autosteer to maintain a set speed and routing every single time, it probably cut down on car accidents as well.
1) People would (and do) cheat at mandatory breathalyzers.
2) It's not speeding that injures people, it's the speed differences that cause issues. Limiting a car to 70mph won't help when it's icy, and they should be driving 40mph.
3) How exactly would a car detect reckless driving? How would it know that it wasn't warranted (ie swerving to avoid a kid)?
> It's not speeding that injures people, it's the speed differences that cause issues.
When two car are at a speed of 70mph, the maximum speed difference between them is 140mph, when they are at 50mph, it's only 100mph. So the speed of a car has a direct impact on the speed difference between cars.
Reckless driving is rarely a single event but a behavior over time. I know a couple of folks that are pretty reckless, doing 35 through neighborhoods, tailgating, abrupt stops. Hell just monitoring brake rotor temperature is probably a pretty good indicator.
A lot of things are hard. Do we just give up because things are hard, or because we don't know how to do them yet?
We have created nuclear power plants, airplanes, giantic ships, giant dams, power grids, 2,700 foot skyscrapers, and so on. I think we can design a computer with sensors to detect unsafe driving conditions, and at least get a minimum level of operational safety.
I don't have all the answers for you. But there probably are answers, and they're probably not all that difficult, considering everything we've accomplished before. Maybe it's worth the tens of thousands of human lives to at least try, even if we don't know exactly how ahead of time.
A lot could be solved by rigourous enforcement and very long driving bans. Many people lack the mental capacity to drive safely and are not actually capable of doing so. They endlessly provide evidence of this by not following procedures and rules.
But this is all very authoritarian. People quite understandably resent this kind of overwheing regulation. They don't see the difference between driving to the shops or walking. Why should the latter attract so many rules?
The hope of technology is that we can help incapable drivers be safe. But they are going to resent the imposition. It is just another kind of authoritarian control. But that is perfectly reasonable when a machine has so much kinetic energy.
The most typical causes are alcohol, speeding, and reckless driving. In addition, seat belts cut the risk of death by 45%. So, if we wanted to keep people safe the way we do for airlines, we would just attack these four problems.
There are many solutions, but the simplest ones would involve 1) a mandatory breathalyzer, 2) speed limiters, 3) sensors that shut down the car when reckless driving is detected, and 4) shutting down the car if seatbelts are not used. These all exist today, and would save tens of thousands of lives a year, and prevent millions of casualties, lawsuits, traffic jams, etc.
Why don't we do these things? My theory is the illusion of safety. In a car, you're wrapped inside 2 tons of steel and plastic, and you feel safe. Even if you know other people are dying inside, you feel like it won't happen to you. So we don't worry, so we don't care about changing things to save lives, because it'd be an inconvenience. But in an airplane, you're not in control; some pilot is. And you're hurtling along at at 500 miles per hour, 40,000 feet above the sky. That's scary. We better make sure those planes are safe.