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I'm of the opinion that some (not all) of this is driven by forces similar to why dollar stores are doing so well, especially as laid out in the NPR article.

From https://www.newsweek.com/dollar-stores-general-tree-america-...

> “Essentially what the dollar stores are betting on in a large way is that we are going to have a permanent underclass in America,” real estate analyst Garrick Brown told Bloomberg in 2017.

> Dollar General CEO Todd Vasos agreed, telling The Wall Street Journal, “The economy is continuing to create more of our core customers.” In other words, the more lower-income Americans struggle, the better dollar stores do.

Jobs Polarization is a fairly well researched and discussed topic in economics, but I'm yet to hear anything about it in the mainstream. Income inequality is a hot topic but I think this deserves more attention since it's part of that feedback loop and IMO what people feel directly.

https://www.stlouisfed.org/~/media/files/pdfs/publications/p...

People talk about robots stealing our jobs, but I think we've already kickstarted this process with things that produce similar effects like outsourcing. It's hard to say there's a causual relationship between the two, but disability benefit claims start rising around the same time as the recession in the early 90's.

There's an article from the National Bureau of Economic Research that suggests when firms are pressured they look to invest in automation or outsourcing. Then, when the economy recovers those jobs remain automated or outsourced, thus resulting in the 'Jobless Recoveries' we've been seeing in recent cycles.

https://www.nber.org/papers/w18334.pdf

If you're one of those people, then due to jobs polarization you're likely either looking at a lower paid job or training to find a higher paid one. Re-training has capital costs (not just money, but time and social capital to a point) that not everyone can afford.

Add in the hollowing out of many small towns and I think at least one cause of the rise in disability benefits starts to come into focus.

I don't think this is true for everyone by any means, but I do think it's a trend worth investigating. Right now, politically we're trying to tackle outsourcing, which IMO is kinda moot as automation is rising and produces similar effects.

People talk about automation as if it's something that's coming, but I think we're already seeing what that future looks like.




Related, there's a strong push to increase the minimum wage; while I agree that those on the bottom should have a higher quality of living I feel the effects of this first hand.

Increasing the minimum wage does nothing to increase the quality of life on the bottom, but does VERY WELL increase the cost of living (which rises to meet the new 'market will bear' level) and decrease everyone who pays rent rather than "earns" rent.

I feel that real world observation can confirm that raising the minimum wage mostly has the effects I describe above and that there are different approaches which should be tried (probably in combination).

    * Actually tax the super-rich *1
    * Tax passive income higher than "active" (work for living) income (maybe 2-3x rate?).
    * Land Value based tax (re-development) on a trend (20 year median?) basis.
    * Define "poverty" as 1.2 * (rent + healthy food + healthcare + other typical costs) per area.
    * Supply side price controls.
    * Anyone in poverty or out of work should instead be eligible for the New New Deal*.
* 1(taxes) High rates for those earning 10X the median income, and approaching 49% for those earning 20X.

Supply side price controls, a baseline offer in critical services for the private sector to (try to) beat, for ALL core public infrastructure: security (mil/'peace officers'), roads, water, sewer, education, healthcare, electricity, communications. Yes, this should focus on mostly covering natural monopolies and often provide a market framework for services on top of that infrastructure. Similar to how public roads enable many delivery services to compete.

New New Deal:

    * free room/board/basic public food kitchen
    * yearly aptitude assessment
    * training for the job area of their choice out among aptitude matches/society needs
    * arranged part time apprenticeship work with at least minimum wage per hour




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