The reality is that phone cycles are becoming longer since the price of the devices keeps going up.
The iPhone 6 basic model was $649 USD at launch. The iPhone X basic model was $999 USD at launch. The most recent Pixel starts at $799 USD the basic model.
I'm still bullish on Apple because their ecosystem strategy is pretty smart and you can see that reflected in their small customer churn.
Basically, lower demand today means potential higher demand later.
However, this is a golden opportunity for Google to come and disrupt the cycle entirely with a killer product and generate the Apple fan base churn that nobody has been able to pull.
I just don't see what technology could produce that. Perhaps Soli (https://atap.google.com/soli/), which got an FCC approval today.
Environmentally, I think this is a good thing. Given Apple's longer software support for its hardware, you can pay more for an iPhone now but hold on to it longer, reducing e-waste.
> The reality is that phone cycles are becoming longer since the price of the devices keeps going up.
Unfortunately phone batteries are not designed for a 4 year (or even 3 year cycle) and battery replacement for modern phones is still rather expensive.
Google needs a real iMessage/Facetime competitor and then they can start chipping away at Apple's network-effects. But Google has no consistent messaging strategy and is placating the carriers with RCS.
The iPhone 6 basic model was $649 USD at launch. The iPhone X basic model was $999 USD at launch. The most recent Pixel starts at $799 USD the basic model.
I'm still bullish on Apple because their ecosystem strategy is pretty smart and you can see that reflected in their small customer churn. Basically, lower demand today means potential higher demand later. However, this is a golden opportunity for Google to come and disrupt the cycle entirely with a killer product and generate the Apple fan base churn that nobody has been able to pull.
I just don't see what technology could produce that. Perhaps Soli (https://atap.google.com/soli/), which got an FCC approval today.