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No, I'm pretty sure declining marginal utility applies more when you're in debt, not less, because interest rates on loans compound. Someone who owes credit cards $150 is going to be FAR more in debt, as a percentage of earnings, after a year than someone who owes $50.


By that same interest rate argument, the marginal utility of money should increase on both ends the further you get from zero, since interest earned on the money you have compounds, too. That said, the interest rate is much larger when you're in debt than when you have money (actually, in this case that's not 100% true, because DMV suspension fees don't accrue interest, nor do tickets or court costs after the late fees max out, but in general, you're right), so this could be a real concern.

Even in the face of marginal utility differences, though, if you were to accept (unreasonably, of course; thought experiment disclaimer goes here) that you only had the two options given (do nothing and owe another $100 to the state, or take the bet, coming out $130 ahead or $230 behind), would you really suggest that doing nothing is the better option? How good would the odds need to be (and how little variance) for you to take the bet, if so?

If I laid out this payoff structure without placing it in a real world context where there are many other obvious potential solutions, I think you'd probably argue in favor of taking the bet - the expected loss is so much lower that I think it's difficult to make a marginal utility argument against it. I suspect that what's really making you argue against it in this example is that there are so many better ways to deal with the situation in real life that it's hard to even imagine having to make a choice between the two alternatives on the table.




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