Tech breakthroughs won't help. There's no replacement for an investment in infrastructure. Let me explain.
I used to live in Seattle, without a car, which meant taking the bus. I thought it worked pretty well until I moved out of downtown to just off the main drag in West Seattle (California Ave.) There, the bus still worked great! Until King County Metro decided to pull service. Suddenly, all-day, all-week service from the stop by my apartment turned into 5 rush-hour trips to downtown a day, weekdays only, peak direction only. Getting anywhere else suddenly required a 2 mile walk to Alaska Junction (or, unrealistically, a local bus transfer. The 2 mile walk was faster.)
I was naive and a fool (fortunately, didn't invest much and was able to move shortly thereafter.) People who invest in areas on the basis of bus service are fools. It's constantly being tinkered with for a host of regions (fluctuating budgets, political pressures, and the damnable need for people making careers to "do something.") You cannot trust a bus route.
Tunnels or tracks in the ground, and associated stations? Those don't move. (They do sometimes get abandoned in the worst cases of nonfeasance.) One can generally rely on continued service over a period of time suitable for investment. There's no substitute for sunk costs as a signal of commitment. It's the investments in density that come with a real transit network that make the difference, not "attracting ridership with fancy buses." See yet again, Seattle. (Sorry, RapidRide is a joke.)
You know what has historically driven ridership and attracted investment in Seattle? Areas around the trolley bus lines. Because, again, you know the route's not going away if the lines are up.
> I was naive and a fool (fortunately, didn't invest much and was able to move shortly thereafter.) People who invest in areas on the basis of bus service are fools.
I'm not sure that's fair. Yes, it's an uncertainty and you need to be aware of it, but it's no worse than investing in an area on the assumption that you won't get laid off or your rent won't increase sharply. Nothing is certain, but you have to settle somewhere.
Agreed. I'd be curious if Chariot (now part of Ford Mobility) might have helped or would there still not have been enough riders in your neighborhood to make Chariot service reliable enough.
https://www.chariot.com/cities/seattle
Hmm... after looking it seems they haven't done the full roll out to Seattle.
I'm guessing the OP is talking about the big service change in the Fall of 2012. In cases like that, the county council actually has to approve the changes. So they'd probably tell him too bad.
Of those, only "Seamless Payment" really seems relevant to most people. The rest is just stuff transit nuts like to think about. But being able to pay as a regular person without buying a pass or finding change or using a vending machine is big. Just walk on the vehicle unimpeded and pay using nothing but what you carry around with you (e.g. a smartphone).
And it inexplicably misses the single biggest and most obvious criterion: SERVICE FREQUENCY. No one cares about how slick the bus service is if you have to wait 10 minutes for it to show up. Because while 10 minutes might be OK for most people what that really means is that inevitably a vehicle gets skipped or breaks down (this happens a lot more than you think) and you have to wait 20 on a day when you really can't wait 20 minutes for a ride.
If you can't get the buses to show with no more than 10 minute wait at every stop on every day, people won't take them. If you can, they're better than cars. But you have to have the service level first before worrying about glitz like the stuff in the linked article.
From the article: "“If there’s a 12-person little vehicle coming down the street every 5 minutes versus a 40-person vehicle coming every 20 minutes, then you’ve got more capacity in that corridor and and a much better experience for people,”
The idea of a trackless train also appeals. If they had a separate right of way and could get integration with the stoplights the analogy could be extended in terms of utility as well.
> If there’s a 12-person little vehicle coming down the street every 5 minutes
What about a 5 person little vehicle that only comes exactly when people call it?
And for even better service it works point to point, which cuts down of fuel and wasted time.
And to reduce costs even further maybe drive it yourself instead of paying a driver. Although we need to a cost analysis on this. It could be some people would prefer to pay a driver, and other would drive themself.
Because there's an external point that having a million "5-person" little vehicles driving around the city containing on average only 1.2 people is a tragedy of the commons. Personal cars simply do not "cuts down of fuel and wasted time", and to argue that is to argue in bad faith. Personal cars are a disaster in the modern megapolis.
A vehicle carrying 12 passengers literally increases the bandwidth of the road it travels on by an order of magnitude. Yeah, that sounds acceptable to me. If you have alternative numbers I'd be happy to evaluate them. But "drive my own car" is just not going to work in this realm.
It's not that simple. First of all they are never full.
Second the trips are longer, since they have to drive fixed routes, so people are in the vehicle for longer - sometimes MUCH longer, so more road capacity is taken up.
They way they stop and start constantly also reduces road bandwidth.
To me bus service is about money and parking - not being able to afford a car if you only rarely drive, and a place to put the car.
I am not convinced buses help with congestion. (Trains/subway/T are different because they have a whole new road built just for them.)
We had buses like that in my part of the UK in the early 90s. They disappeared many years ago, we just have normal buses now and have for many years. I don't know why they got rid of them. Maybe cutting costs by having fewer drivers?
I'd venture to say it's both. That is, lower the wait for the bus showing up, and then lower the wait to get onto the bus.
To that I'll add: Protection from the elements. If train stops were like bus stops, no one would find that acceptable.
On that note, one can't help but wonder if the neglect of buses isn't a passive form of racism / class-ism.
Anecdotally, one of the patterns I've noticed is the further down the economic ladder you move, the longer you wait for services. Given that time is money, this works against those who likely need the time most.
> By eliminating the costly overhead of the driver, AV shuttles could provide more frequent suburban service at a lower expense, making transit a more viable option for communities that are now poorly served by buses. “If there’s a 12-person little vehicle coming down the street every 5 minutes versus a 40-person vehicle coming every 20 minutes, then you’ve got more capacity in that corridor and and a much better experience for people,” said Colin Murphy, director of research and consulting for the Shared Use Mobility Center. “In a lot of cities that could really make a huge difference.”
> And it inexplicably misses the single biggest and most obvious criterion: SERVICE FREQUENCY.
Seattle seems to agree. The Rapid Ride buses attempt to keep headways between buses very short.
I don't own a car and travel via public transit frequently. I find that an accurate OneBusAway/Transit estimate is much more useful than headways. I absolutely agree that some kind of predictability is extremely important.
Well 1000 Buses going electric can displace 430 barrels of diesel use a day. That alone is a big enough reason for the world buses to go electric as that would mean removing a million barrels of smog producing diesel from the world's streets a day.
Not sure what city you're in, but hardly any buses in Seattle even have a 10 minute schedule. In fact, in Seattle you have neighborhoods actively lobbying _against_ transit because transit frequency is legally coupled with rules for housing density.
OP is talking about the RapidRide [0] system. I want to add some additional information for those not familiar with Seattle.
A RapidRide route brings buses more frequently. It also adds additional infrastructure. It's a noticeably larger level of commitment than a regular route. Density requirements make a lot of sense if a RapidRide route is created.
The Roosevelt neighborhood illustrates why this is important. They received a Link Light Rail station in the middle of their urban neighborhood. Home owners subsequently fought to lower height restrictions to 12m [1].
I'm a firm believer if a neighborhood receives well-done public transit then they should have to meet density requirements.
Autonomous driving can increase service frequency by reducing operating costs. The cost of bus driver per passenger could be quite high off peak hours and in sparse areas.
In America, it's frustrating, but the breakthrough Americans need is some sort of separation between mass transit and poverty - that mass transit is something for all of us, not just the poor.
(I also argue that it needs to be faster than individual transit. Unfortunately, individual transit is something people won't accept being slower, even if mass transit could make the whole trip faster.)
Cars are more than mere conveyance. Modern vehicles provide many more amenities and conveniences.
- Secure storage - Have a secure trunk locker located anywhere in the city. Entirely self-service mobility with no advanced reservation needed means you can park it anywhere in city or country.
- Peaceful getaway - Need a quiet minute away from all the stress and noise of your city? Or do you want a break from the droning silence of the countryside? Both needs can be accommodated. Cars can provide a quiet space wherever you want. Alternatively, cars can feature loud entertainment and/or powerplant system, forcing others to share in your chosen audio.
- Climate controlled sleeping - More and more Tesla and Prius owners are discovering the joys of unofficial "camping mode" which the cars will endure. Pair with the peaceful getaway above for maximal enjoyment.
- Personal autonomy - Need to feel in control of your life? We'll give you a personal racecar you can use to express your frustrations with modern society. There will be plenty of "lap traffic" to pass. (These unwitting racers are merely trying to arrive at their destination unscathed.)
- Status symbol - Enjoy the privilege of having others ask to ride in your car. Have others know to visit a 3rd party, because they see your car out front. Brag about the costs of maintaining your symbol, and use these woes to stratify yourself in the social hierarchy.
Do NYC residents look at the subway as something only poor people use? Honest question, I don’t live there. I don’t consider “associating with the poors” to be an impediment at all.
What stops me from using mass transit (including bus and rail service) is that its schedule in my town is totally inadequate. Stops are not frequent enough, service starts too late in the morning and ends too early at night, and travel time to most destinations is slower than by car. Fix these major problems and I happily use transit.
> Do NYC residents look at the subway as something only poor people use?
No, but subway funding and management is controlled by the state, not the city -- and the majority of residents of the state do not use transit. I get the impression that a lot of people in the state still think of NYC as the crumbling inner city of the 70's: the place where poor people live.
The governor is more interested in optics ("Now you can charge your phone on the bus! We replaced the tiles in this subway station!") than restoring service, let alone expansion. He has diverted funds from the subways to, among other things, pretty light shows on bridges and supporting failing upstate ski resorts. With the subways failing, those who can afford to are taking cabs and black cars more and more, which contributes to the traffic congestion crisis.
The mayor gets driven everywhere in a black SUV and seems to have never learned that not only to most of his constituents not commute in personal vehicles, the majority don't even own cars.
Additionally, the city has a LOT of public buses. In some ways (frequency, coverage), bus service in the city is much better than most of the rest of the country. In other ways, it's unusably bad (mostly, time to get from A to B due to traffic, too-frequent stops, silly winding routes, slow payment/boarding, overcrowding, inufficiently frequent service outside rush hour, bus bunching decreasing apparent/useful service frequency).
The NIMBYs and traffic enforcers all seem to believe that bus riders are "not us" (and yes, outside of a few crosstown corridors, bus riders average poorer than subway riders). The result is obstacles to the creation of bus lanes and busways, and utter lack of enforcement of those we do have.
Most residents of NYC use the subway, at least for long distances - it's simply the cheapest and fastest way for a large majority of routes throughout the city. The socioeconomic spread is large; granted, I'm sure the wealthy with their door-to-door black car service probably think it is still for "the poor."
Not sure about NYC, but there are absolutely people in Chicago and Milwaukee who will call a rideshare (or insist that they pick up/be picked up by family) even though there is a city bus that goes literally directly door to door and the vehicle is sitting there ready to leave in a few minutes. It is depressing.
Anecdotally it is much worse in cases where the bus in question passes through areas where non-affluent white people will be getting on and off.
> Do NYC residents look at the subway as something only poor people use? Honest question, I don’t live there. I don’t consider “associating with the poors” to be an impediment at all.
It varies depending on the size of the city, in my experience. NYC might be the most egalitarian city in America regarding public transit use. Other large cities are similar or slightly less so. In small cities, it's very much considered a low-income thing.
I expect Uber and Lyft to likely provide a separation by expanding their carpool service to vans. They'll be as cheap as jitney vans but much more timely and everyone inside will have to own a working smart phone.
I live in Scandinavia where public bus systems are plentiful, heavily subsized (with my taxes...) and reasonably on schedule.
The things that make me avoid them and instead use my car:
- You get sick by using them. The passenger density is way too high and invariably you'll end end up having a seat neighbor with some cold or flu virus.
- There is no privacy at all during rush time - it's super packed and just a horribly stressed environment. I don't want to sit squashed up to some random stranger.
The solution to all of this is obvious: Instead of 2+2 seat arrangements, look at business class seat configurations. Or just make the buses longer, and go with 1+1 seat configs.
1st class train service is one answer for this problems. While 2nd class service remains jam packed during rush hour 1st class sections are always nice and quiet.
>“The thing that Uber and Lyft have done that is really revolutionary was just removing some of the transportation anxiety that exists from not knowing whether you’re going to be able to get a ride, not knowing how long it’s going to take for that ride to get there, not knowing exactly how much it’s going to cost,” he said. If bus operators could make all of this information as transparent as Uber and Lyft do, they’d win more riders.
I think up-to-the second awareness of time remaining would be a major improvement to the experience. I know the time remaining is uncertain, but a lot of information exists but is not making its way to the user.
Allow me to browse my phone while I wait, without paying attention at all, until I get a notification when the bus is 30s away.
If I'm wandering whether to go in the nearby bakery, allow me to see a "best guess" estimate and a "surely won't take less than this much" estimate for the remaining time.
For very infrequent routes, allow me to set my alarm clock to X minutes before the "surely won't take less than this much" estimate to the stop near my home, to be evaluated at runtime.
This post reads like a Buzzfeed article of pointing out not quite impressive iterations of known technologies or fixes to "it ain't broke" situations.
Electric buses have been around for a while, they're called trolleys. Putting the batteries inside the buses is an improvement, but hardly a breakthrough, and I'm not entirely sure it would make me "Love the Bus"
Likewise, autonomous buses have been around for at least a couple decades in the form of driverless trains. For high-density routes with lots of passengers doing the same itinerary, I feel it's probably cheaper in the long run, more maintainable and safer to use rails, so I'm not sure an autonomous bus is an innovation we want over trains.
Seamless payment is not a tech breakthrough at this point, it's just a matter of getting regulators and government contractors to implement seamless payments.
"Accessibility" is not a tech breakthrough and the things mentioned in the article make me question the author's understanding of the state of assistive technology and the actual current needs of people with disabilities.
As for "Minibus or ‘trackless train’", that's indeed a super interesting question that hasn't been solved in the space of transportation: given a very dense ad-hoc demand for transportation from region A to region B, how can you broker a collective transportation solution that is cheap, efficient and desirable over, say, a slower multimodal option, or more expensive private transportation. Sadly, the article discusses minibuses (which we've had, in Brazil at least, for longer than I can remember) and only mentions they "can" be routeless but doesn't fully explain how that could be achieved.
A large part of my issue with busses is that where I am they stop literally every block. It makes them miss every light (since if there's any traffic, they can only get to their stop during a green light), which just makes them too slow to be very useful.
I commute daily by "coach" - I live thirty miles outside London in the commuter belt, and in general it is great. But it's great because mostly there is a bus service locally (dr gong round picking people up every few hundred yards) and then mostly a motorway drive to London - once past the first drop off (Canary Wharf) it grinds to a halt along with every one else in sheer weight of traffic
The fixes needed are simple - and related to the to comment on "infrastructure as a commitment signalling device".
Just charge the living bejesus out of single occupancy cars, force major roads to be bus and cycle only, and have serious decade long plans for pedestrianising most city areas - the car has to go.
I lived in a city with a "trolley" that turned out to be a bus painted like a trolley and I've heard of others with the same experience. I have to laugh when I see a city advertise it's trolley service when in reality it is nothing of the sort.
That's not really what the OP is talking about. Not sure why they aren't popular in the US, but many cities in Europe have extensive electric bus networks powered by electrical lines overhead.
I suspect the benefits are you don't have to lay rail + you can use normal vehicle lanes + you get the benefits of not having a combustion engine (smog, mechanical issues, fuel storage/re-fill).
The only thing I want is a quiet engine and adult sized seats. I rode the bus for two years until back pain and migraines from the noised made it so I vowed never to ride one again.
Electrification will cut the exhaust stench down a lot, but it won't stop the lurching or the overheating in winter, both of which reliably make me nauseated.
That depends on what the source of the lurching is---if you live in an area where surface street road quality is rough (e.g., Seattle), then it won't help much. But electrification can mean the bus will use a fixed gear instead of a rough-shifting transmission.
The double-decker buses in Las Vegas overheat in the summer. You wouldn't think that a desert city where it's 100°-120°F for months on end would have buses that overheat.
The problem is that the double-decker buses are sourced from a company in Britain, which has a very different definition of "hot" than Nevada.
If you ever go on vacation to Vegas and see one of the double-decker buses driving down the Strip with its back engine cover wide open, it's the driver trying to keep the bus from overheating. There was an article in one of the Vegas newspapers about it.
The official policy is to simply let the buses overheat and go out of service. The bus drivers get in trouble for cooling their engines that way.
Vegas also has level four self-driving buses, as mentioned in the article. The first one got backed into by a truck within minutes of being deployed.
It implies that people who currently take the bus should for some reason be considered ab-normal, which they definitely should not be, by any non-classist definition.
It doesn't imply that people who take the bus are abnormal, only that people who love the bus are abnormal. Do you really believe anybody but a small minority loves bus travel? AFAIK most people who travel by bus only tolerate it.
Here's a non tech "breakthrough" to help people love the bus: have the goddamn police enforce people who double park, and rip out parking and car lanes for buses only. Buses are great when they work, and they fall off when not. Its easy AF and proven across the world without the need for techbro innovation.
Double parking is not even close to the number one concern making buses unpleasant.
1) Time it takes to walk to the station.
2) Waiting for an indeterminate amount of time, often in excess of 10 minutes, which is considered a good peak-hours frequency for some reason.
3) Standing-room-only, overcrowding, the relatively intense motor coordination task of staying upright while the bus lurches around, the unpleasantness of holding an arm over your head for tens of minutes.
4) Difficulty of escape from
someone trying to talk to you or polluting the cabin with the smell of urine or music from a shitty phone speaker.
5) Absurd travel times 3-5x what it would take in a car due to frequent stops and use of surface streets.
I rely entirely on public transit, and the only good bus experiences I’ve had were with a suburban commuter express which behaved like a car (or better, due to priority lanes) for the vast majority of the trip. But it was so infrequent, and the subway from my office to the bus depot had such high variance due to extreme congestion among trains, that it was no better for end-to-end travel time than a car.
There is also the loss of flexibility and freedom. Having your own car available -- even though it sits in your workplace's parking lot 99% of the time during business hours -- gives some comfort to some people. I have not lived in NYC for some time, but during the brief I did reside there, I never got used to being utterly dependent on public transportation. I suppose I would have in time. But, for the majority (in terms of area) of the country, taking public transportation occasions a nagging feeling of being 'trapped' at a location. (This isn't a knock on dense cities where subways/busses are essential due to the impossibility of everyone driving and parking... But, for a second-tier city where parking is plentiful, the 'freedom' factor is significant.)
The most flexibility and freedom comes from access to high-quality public transit in addition to a car. Only being able to go places with ample parking is also constraining.
Fixing double parking and having dedicated lanes would immediately help address three of your five points.
2) You're not supposed to need to wait an "indeterminate amount of time." Buses are supposed to be on schedule, a schedule that gets thrown out of whack by issues such as double parking.
3) More predictable, regular service should help with overcrowding. Buses that don't have to swerve in and out of blocked lanes don't have to lurch around as much.
5) Travel times are significantly shorter when they have clear lanes (ideally dedicated, or at least without double parking).
I've been taking public transit in Silicon Valley this week, which is fairly car centric. Unusually, because I live so close to work, my commute is 10 minutes via surface street. Corporate coaches don't stop near me, but a direct public bus route follows the same path with roughly the same travel time.
> 1) Time it takes to walk to the station.
Fortunately, there's a bus very near my section of the apartment building. It likely takes me longer to get my car out of the parking garage than to walk to the stop.
> 2) Waiting for an indeterminate amount of time, often in excess of 10 minutes, which is considered a good peak-hours frequency for some reason.
The bus here runs every 30 minutes. The keys here are flexibility, planning and predictability. If your schedule is flexible (mine is) then you're not stuck waiting 30 minutes for the next bus, you just need to be at the stop shortly before the 30 minute timer. Which means you kinda need to plan things out some, so your time isn't wasted.
Where this all falls down is predictability. Busses are incredibly bad here. The rides I've taken have been roughly 15 minutes late each, with a wide variance. That's what really kills the commute for me.
> 3) Standing-room-only, overcrowding, the relatively intense motor coordination task of staying upright while the bus lurches around, the unpleasantness of holding an arm over your head for tens of minutes.
At least when I take the bus, it's pretty light. Nothing like the free bus system I occasionally took working for a university. It's probably worse for longer commutes / Express busses where there's a ton of people who want to get from point A to a point B 50 miles way, but at least my bus there's a roughly even in/outflow.
There's only one coworker who gets off the bus with me, which I find a bit surprising given how convenient it is.
> 4) Difficulty of escape from someone trying to talk to you or polluting the cabin with the smell of urine or music from a shitty phone speaker.
Headphones work okay, but they're not a panacea for obnoxious people.
> 5) Absurd travel times 3-5x what it would take in a car due to frequent stops and use of surface streets.
That's what the commuter express is for.
So what tech innovations would help these concerns?
Well, Google maps has kinda deciphered business hours based on nearby cellphone usage and polling, it knows how delayed busses currently are, and could probably offer a predicted schedule.
Additionally, customers using commuter navigation apps like gmaps could probably provide additional insight into passenger needs. And if we're airing grievances, I could use an app feature that signals the driver to stop on my behalf, because 9 stops is not easily countable when you don't actually stop at every sign.
i love how SF deals with this: every muni bus has a camera that takes pics of parking scofflaws and they automatically get a ticket! :)
but the biggest thing that will make people flock back to the bus, imho, would if they actually ran on schedule. i commute to work daily via AC-Transit in berkeley and have already lost count this week alone how many times the bus was scheduled to appear and didn't...
>i love how SF deals with this: every muni bus has a camera that takes pics of parking scofflaws and they automatically get a ticket! :)
At best I begrudging tolerate some amount of automated law enforcement as a necessary evil. I don't love it. Then again, I'm one of the people who reads 1984 as a warning, not an instruction manual.
AC Transit is a dumpster fire. The schedules are so unreliable that I wonder why they even bother posting them anyway. It's insulting when they say a bus runs every half-hour, only to see it sitting in its downtown start-of-route spot with the driver nowhere in sight, five minutes after it's supposed to have gotten on its way!
For all the bleeding heart liberalism in Berkeley, it's amazing how little pride and professionalism AC Transit has in delivering a service the working poor need to depend on.
None of these "breakthroughs" address cleanliness.
Dedicated lanes addresses timeliness but if the number of people per hour of a bus lane is less than the traffic it replaces it's a net negative from an infrastructure perspective (yes it's more environmentally friendly, whether it's worth it is up for debate)
Autonomy would be nice because then you could cut some pretty big costs but I expect unions to prevent that.
Accessibility is basically catering to edge cases. As others have pointed out in the past, it's more efficient to have a subset of buses be handicapped accessible or have a dedicated handicapped accessible van service
This is just a puff piece that doesn't really address any hard issues.
I used to live in Seattle, without a car, which meant taking the bus. I thought it worked pretty well until I moved out of downtown to just off the main drag in West Seattle (California Ave.) There, the bus still worked great! Until King County Metro decided to pull service. Suddenly, all-day, all-week service from the stop by my apartment turned into 5 rush-hour trips to downtown a day, weekdays only, peak direction only. Getting anywhere else suddenly required a 2 mile walk to Alaska Junction (or, unrealistically, a local bus transfer. The 2 mile walk was faster.)
I was naive and a fool (fortunately, didn't invest much and was able to move shortly thereafter.) People who invest in areas on the basis of bus service are fools. It's constantly being tinkered with for a host of regions (fluctuating budgets, political pressures, and the damnable need for people making careers to "do something.") You cannot trust a bus route.
Tunnels or tracks in the ground, and associated stations? Those don't move. (They do sometimes get abandoned in the worst cases of nonfeasance.) One can generally rely on continued service over a period of time suitable for investment. There's no substitute for sunk costs as a signal of commitment. It's the investments in density that come with a real transit network that make the difference, not "attracting ridership with fancy buses." See yet again, Seattle. (Sorry, RapidRide is a joke.)
You know what has historically driven ridership and attracted investment in Seattle? Areas around the trolley bus lines. Because, again, you know the route's not going away if the lines are up.