Now it is network effects. But when it first started it became popular because:
a) MySpace wasn't actually that popular (was your mum on it for example?) so there weren't many network effects.
b) It looked clean, unlike the eye-stabbing experience of MySpace
c) It was more secure than MySpace because only people from your university could see your profile.
Things are different now so you're never going to have success with that strategy (although the university-based access thing could potentially work again).
I think what will kill Facebook now is the sheer volume of low quality content on it - not just adverts but "Dave tagged you in this meme", and "Jen shared this gif of a cute dog" and "Remember what you were doing one year ago today!".
It's just, not very pleasant. You can tame it by using an ad blocker and unsubscribing from most of your friends... but even then there are some post types you can only "See less of" (yeah right), and it's .. just... crap.
This privacy thing is bullshit. It was an obvious problem in 2012 and nobody quit over it then. They removed the API in 2015. Why would people quit now?
a) Kids are finding they don't want to join what their parents are on. Heck, I don't want to stay on what parents (whom I knew from before they were parents) are on.
b) Elon Musk just said: "Looks lame anyway" - don't get "clean" and not-lame mixed up - most of Facebook does look lame in 2018 once people see past the window dressing; I actually think nearly every single company/personal page out there is a potential liability, often with not that much to gain (depends on the social media manager employed of course).
c) And university people are realising that Eternal September has arrived.
I have one simple answer to your last line (reflecting from my personal experience of being on Facebook for longer than I should have): For me, it was the straw that broke the camel's back.
a) MySpace wasn't actually that popular (was your mum on it for example?) so there weren't many network effects.
b) It looked clean, unlike the eye-stabbing experience of MySpace
c) It was more secure than MySpace because only people from your university could see your profile.
Things are different now so you're never going to have success with that strategy (although the university-based access thing could potentially work again).
I think what will kill Facebook now is the sheer volume of low quality content on it - not just adverts but "Dave tagged you in this meme", and "Jen shared this gif of a cute dog" and "Remember what you were doing one year ago today!".
It's just, not very pleasant. You can tame it by using an ad blocker and unsubscribing from most of your friends... but even then there are some post types you can only "See less of" (yeah right), and it's .. just... crap.
This privacy thing is bullshit. It was an obvious problem in 2012 and nobody quit over it then. They removed the API in 2015. Why would people quit now?