I've been in serious debate with myself over whether to encourage my son to go to college when it is time. I guess it depends on what field I see him become interested in. I could provide enough resources for him to learn enough to get an entry level job, if he chooses tech. But I guess I still have that romantic notion of him getting a well-rounded education in many subjects that I couldn't help him with, making friends, and meeting interesting professors. At least I could help him find a good college. I was the first person in my family to even graduate high-school, so I was flying blind.
Besides the notion that so many jobs expected it when I was starting out, I'm not really sure what good it did for me. Put it this way, I couldn't even tell you where my diploma is. But once a month I still go online and pay for it.
1) The average run of the mill degree results in twice the earnings and half the unemployment of those with just high school.
2) The average run of the mill degree results in a $900k lift in lifetime earnings (for men) over a high school diploma. The lift for women is not quite that much but that might have something to do with the types of degrees that each get.
These numbers are averages so if your child completes a stem degree from say MIT, the lift in lifetime earnings is likely quite a bit more than that.
This shows correlation but not causation. Hypothetically: people with certain background (social class) and traits (IQ) are more likely to go to college, and they would fare as well or better without college. I'd be very interested in stats of lifetime earnings difference that was corrected for selection bias.
It is not going to have variables like "Social status of your parents" or "IQ" but it does have a rather extensive list of demographic variables to control for.
IQ, conscientiousness, and parental social status are probably the three biggest determiners of success, presumably none of which are being controlled for.
Pointing out that you should not draw causal conclusions from correlative data does not mean that I would not encourage my kids from going to college. It means that you should not conclude that going to any college causes better outcomes. It also doesn't mean that you should conclude that going to college does not cause better outcomes.
I agree. In fact, I pointed out that the data set I referenced was unlikely to include items like "Parental Social Class" and "IQ" specifically for these reason.
I think the point is moreso, connecting correlation to causation is really, really, really, really hard, even for simple stuff. And sample size doesn't change that, it may even make it harder (see Simpson's Paradox re: 1964 U.S. Civil Rights Act). I don't know that the_watcher is arguing against college, more noting the underlying assumption and playing devil's advocate.
I would absolutely prefer to send my (hypothetical) children to college for the reasons you've stated here.
But really: are increased earnings due to anything people learn at college or because of its social value? I.e. it's been over-sold and many people will assume you're dumb/couldn't get accepted somewhere if you don't play along.
The 1992 study is basically irrelevant since the job market has changed drastically. There are way more self taught computer people out making money without degrees than in 1992 as just one major factor that has changed in over two decades.
The Berkeley study is missing a lot of data and is dated as well from 1999. I searched for the most common high paying non-degree jobs and found nothing about them. Plumbers, electricians, construction contractors, certain kinds of farmers, etc... Recently on HN it was said that construction works in California were starting at $45 an hour in many places. I know plenty of people who got non-stem degrees that do not make that 10+ years out of college and working professionally in their field the whole time.
Then there is the issue of colleges and textbooks constantly increasing costs while not increasing the value of the degree itself. In fact in many instances degrees are worth less now since colleges pass students to keep that fire hose of government backed money coming in. There are numerous documentaries on youtube that go into depth of how colleges are ripping people off in many instances.
The main value of college is the ability to network with people so that finding and getting a job becomes easier. The job hunting process is broken and there are always new startups trying to fix it. In high school they pushed college as the solution to everything harder than a drug dealer slinging product. It is easy to find people who got that degree and their job and earning problems are not solved. Going to college no matter what is a dogma.
It is not clear at all that a college education is going to increase your lifetime earning. You have to pick the right field, get your debt settled quickly, live in or move to the right area and conquer the job hunting process and then you might come out ahead. I think high school students should be better educated on how the market works and there are plenty of non-degree jobs that have serious earning potential. Also the US has neglected trade schools as a job training solution while European countries have not.
> "In 2013 the "conservative" Brookings Institute seemed to agree..."
Setting aside the core causation/correlation problem with your claims about scholastic credentials, it's absurd to call the Brookings institute conservative. It's centre left and, in US election donations, its employees give 97.6% Democrat.
In this case, I don't think your data is that strong. The parent could get them an entry level job in tech, conceivably one comparable with one one would obtain fresh out of college.
Separately from this specific case, remember, to pay off 200k in debt (cost of many good public schools), you need to make about 2M! If you save 20%, then you need an EXTRA 1M over not going to college just to break even. I'm not even factoring in interest that many students are getting these days. And then you have the opportunity cost of not investing the money you did make when you didn't have debt by skipping college. So when you consider these things, a 900k bump in lifetime earnings doesn't look good.
Now if you get a scholarship or if you factor in the intangibles the parent mentions then I think it's a no brainer. But strictly from a lifetime earnings standpoint it's oversold. You have to factor in the foregone earnings, the debt, the interest and the opportunity cost of not being able to save and invest money.
Personally I think it's worth it but best for most people to go to a lower tier university that won't start them off with a mountain of debt.
You can certainly accumulate a mountain of debt and one should factor that in.
Not all degrees at all colleges make economic sense or have the same rate of return. That said, there are plenty of net present value calculations that include opportunity costs including in the links I have provided.
I want to correct a few things though.
Leaving the opportunity to take 2 years of community college and finish at a university aside, the most expensive public school in the USA (for in-state students) is the University of Pittsburgh at about $19k a year.
Your $200k debt for public education is either grossly exaggerated, is for out of state tuition and/or includes other factors such as housing and food (items that you would have had to purchase regardless of college status). In fact, the average graduation debt for those at public institutions was $25,550 not $200,000.
The opportunity cost to invest the cost of college is also unrealistic. Unless you are a Thiel Fellow, no one is going to loan/give you $200k to "play the market" as a high school graduate.
You do get an economic advantage of entering the workforce sooner than a college graduate, but that advantage lasts for about 10 years on average and by that time a college graduate typically catches the earnings of a high school graduate (cost of degree and opportunity included).
You might also be interested in this Brookings report comparing investing is stocks, bonds, or university
That $25,550 average for college graduation debt is out of date. As of 2016, that number is up to $37,172, which itself was up from $35k the previous year. It's probably up to close to $40k as of this year.
It breaks it down further in there. For combined undergraduate and graduate programs, getting an MS brings it up to $50k, Law is $140k, Medicine is $160k.
And Law doesn't even pay that great if you're not at the tippy top of your class anymore. The average salary for that is at $82k a year. I'm making more than that, and my student loans (that were only $25k at their max) have been really annoying. I can't imagine being able to pay $140k of loans for a Law degree while only making $82k a year.
Ok yes if you attend in-state then 20k (tuition, books) is doable for a good school.
But let's say 60k in debt though, saving 10% isn't even easy for most people especially if you're in an expensive area where most the jobs are. So you'd need 600k extra. Most people only save 2.2% of their income.
> In fact, the average graduation debt for those at public institutions was $25,550 not $200,000.
The average graduation debt probably includes payments made by parents. Yes if your education is being subsidized that will change the analysis. You can't really answer the question of whether college is a good idea unless you know if there are any subsidies for a person. Also your numbers are outdated. It's 38k in 2017.
I looked at your Brookings report but it's from 2011 and factors in an average 4 year degree at only 48k. If they update it to 2018 their 15% return would crumble.
Additionally, Brookings says "On average, 18 and 19 year olds right out of high school earn about $11,600 per year, while 20 and 21 year olds with a high school degree average about $15,400 per year".
Anyone that can get entry level in tech (as the parent suggested) will be multiples of that. If you can only obtain a 11-15k yr annual salary, then yes I agree college is a good investment (if you go in-state). But if you compare it to entry level tech as the parent suggests or an electrician or other trade rather than minimum wage fresh out of high school, no I don't think it's wise for most people unless someone is helping you pay for it (scholarship, parents, company, etc.). A 2 yr or cheap online degree is probably better for most people in my opinion.
If a student can get into MIT that student will likely be financially well off no matter where they go, even after an upper middle-class family spends nearly $300,000 in tuition, room and board. It's the edge cases that are much harder. Try comparing an expensive private school for four years with a state school (three if they accept AP courses).
Of course there are a lot of other non-financial reasons to attend college, such as growing a circle of friends and being exposed to new ideas in a formal setting. It's unclear how to value that properly however.
When you say 'run of the mill degree' are you referring to Associates, Bachelor, or higher? Additionally, do you know how the data you shared compares to individuals with technical certificates?
Read the rest of this branch of the thread including links to twins studies. If you disagree after reading that and the evidence I present then we will agree to disagree.
> But I guess I still have that romantic notion of him getting a well-rounded education in many subjects that I couldn't help him with, making friends, and meeting interesting professors
Interestingly, in my country (Poland) we never had such romantic concept. You always went to university to go deeply on one specific subject (which you chose when you applied to the uni) - the opposite of being well-rounded. Professors were never meant to be interesting. The one thing I see in common is the hope for making friends.
I wonder if it's similar in other European countries.
I believe that part of the difference is that when the education systems gelled in the US there was in the air the perception that the US is this historically radical experiment in democracy and that it needed a citizenry that well-rounded enough to participate.
I don't believe that there was as strong a sense for those things in other places. But it fit with the way that at least some people thought of the US, at the time.
As a recent graduate of an American college, I don't see it as giving me a "well rounded" education. Thanks to advanced courses in High School, I didn't even have to take a writing class. There were maybe 4 or 5 out of over 30 classes through my entire career that weren't directly related to my CS degree
I can't speak to Poland, but at one time the German system saw to it that the students arrived at the university with a great deal more general grounding than one can count on in American schools.
Whether they should or not is a different discussion but I'll put it this way...
Employers (implicitly) use the ability to complete a college degree as a marker of basic competence and knowledge posession necessary to do entry level work. From their side it is simply a more efficient and easier way to assess candidates in bulk than any other approach.
a BS is also a strong social marker of the ability for a student to complete a body of work and manage themselves independent of their parents...basically its an 'adulting' check mark.
Employer here. I’ve never thought like this through the hiring process. I care about what people can build and not where/if they have a degree. The Github section of a CV is 10X more meaningful to me than the education section and I regularly hire people who don’t have degrees.
Absolutely agree this is really how it should be done. Education should also be competency based...but here we are with metrics that are validated in societal normativity rather than actual logic :)
The issue is that the method I'm describing is that method used by large scale employers who have the power and sway to influence how colleges act.
Having a college degree makes finding a job much easier even if it's totally unrelated to the job. With a lot of employers without degree you are pretty much out of contention for a lot of jobs . It's kind of silly but that's the way it is.
And a degree from a famous college opens even more doors. I still remember at a startup I worked at the VCs would talk to people from MIT or Stanford and ignore everybody else.
If you're in the US then it depends on what state you live in. If he can get into one of the good in-state schools then it may be worth it - based on the social experience alone.
Another way to look at is that if you set your son up to be a good critical thinker and emotionally mature then you can trust that he may make the best choice on his own without any encouragement one way or another.
This is something that I struggle with personally. I'm a junior dev and a part time student. I got the development job after working desktop support at the same company. My technical experience is entirely self taught. I only started going to school because my manager felt that I should receive a formal education as most of the senior devs have.
My issues with it are the cost and the level of education I'm receiving. To give everyone an example, my first database class taught MS Excel and moved to MS Access. This is from a college that is charging me thousands of dollars a year. While at work, I've developed multiple enterprise applications and setup entire SQL Server environments. I feel like I'm receiving way more training from work than from school. This is supported by the extremely positive reviews I've received from senior devs and my manager. And when I say cost of school, it isn't just the amount that I pay out of pocket. It's the time as well. I spend about 16 hours in class each week during business hours. Another 10 to 12 hours at home is spent doing homework or studying. An entire day is spent each week dedicated to school while working 40 hours a week. This makes for a pretty stressful situation. I'm on the edge of breaking down, but I make great money so I feel like I can't complain.
And yes, I know this is very specific to my situation. I could have chosen not to get a full time job and just gone to school instead. However, that would mean giving up starting a career early, which I think is much more valuable. If I can get a job without any education, the experience I have seems to be more valuable than the education. This leads me to believe that I should spend that 20+ hours learning independently instead of going to school. I'd save money that way, time, stress, and I'd likely be at a higher technical level than school has brought me to.
I know this comment doesn't help you out very much. I just wanted to share my situation as someone in the position that your son may be in the future. If I would have known how much I would have learned from work, I would have chosen not to go back to school. The only thing keeping me from stopping is that the senior devs have degrees in higher education and, though most of them are twice my age, I feel like I should keep up with them. Each of them is extremely supportive of both my work and school and I feel like dropping out would be letting them down.
You have a good job and you can get another, you already have valuable skills and work experience.
Unlike many of your classmates, you do not have an urgent need to gain a means to support yourself. When you are next in class, look around and appreciate the rarity of your circumstance.
Enjoy the liberty you have to pursue knowledge solely for edification and personal expansion. You can work towards a degree in any subject that interests you. Enjoy a liberal education.
My older brother has a master in physics, I spent less than 6 years in any kind of formal education. We both work as software developers and I do think my education is as well rounded as his. So on these fronts I don't think it makes much of a difference. That said I did develop anxiety problems that I might not have had if from age 9 to 15 I had spend as much time around a diverse set of peers as he had.
I recently got back in touch with a friend from highschool who's parents were really well off. They actually bought property on the East Coast just so that he could claim residency and get in-state with this really haughty college (I cannot remember which one). He now has several philosophy degrees and works at our old highschool as a librarian. He seems very unhappy with his life as well.
I went to school from 7 to 9 and then again from 15 to 18. It depends on the subject but on average the depth should be in the same ballpark. He definitely knows more math and physics than I do, maybe chemistry as well, I think I'm better at history. On languages, he's probably better at German than me (note it's our native language), I'm probably better at English than him because I use it more, I don't know how much high-school French he remembers but I assume not as much as I learned in the last few years, I speak Dutch (well somewhat) he doesn't. We're both not very musically inclined.
Your son could have that at a state school for probably free (depending on the state, and with good grades), and work in a restaurant three or four nights a week to offset some other costs.
Ugh - depends what state school. My wife and I both went to University of Illinois (we are from Illinois). I worked 10 - 20 hours per week, and got some smaller grants, my wife got larger grants..
We still both have more debt than I care to admit... It's literally 20% of our overall monthly expenses.
I found the connections personally invaluable and worth it. My wife is just starting her PhD at U of I, so we both agree it was worth it, but just barely.
I live in Illinois. I just looked up in-state tuition for UIUC = $17k/year. That is not cheap, but it's a lot less than many lower-ranking private schools. Loyola charges $21k. Roosevelt charges $26k.
UIUC is a great state school, one of the best in the country. I'd say you got a good deal. But yes, definitely not close to free.
Not sure why you're getting downvoted. Going to one of your state schools is a good choice for a relatively low cost education.
It's naive to think a college degree isn't valuable. Among a collection of candidates with and without college degrees, those with degrees will not only get preferential treatment, but also once they are deep in their careers those who do not have formal degrees will be held back from leadership roles.
This is how the real world works much of the time, the idea that college is becoming less important is wrong. It's becoming more important.
I live in the midwest, and our "premier" state school is $18k/year (including housing). Unless you're going to go to community college for your first two years and then transfer, it's very hard to not incur a substantial amount of debt in completing your degree.
When I went to school in the early/mid 90s, tuition was low enough that I could basically support myself with a job and some minimal support from my dad ($1000/quarter). Those days are long gone, however.
Yes and the full ride scholarships(scholarships in general) are that much more difficult to give. My father got a full ride to a state school back in the 80s but today with his grades it wouldn't happen.
The SUNY system offers free tuition to NY state residents with annual income under $125K. That may not be too relevant for the children of HNers, but it's a huge proportion of households in NY state.
I find it’s doable to attend a college where you won’t pay tuition, but it will most likely be a semi-low-tier, state school and or your estimated family contribution must be zero.
After spending a few years at a community college, I will (I think, I need more for or against opinions) be attending San Francisco State University in the fall. My tuition looks like it will be waived (tuition is about 8k for in-state students, 17k for out-of-state students) since I’m in-state and my estimated family contribution (via FASFA) is zero (family income is about 31k). I will then just have to take out loans for living expenses and hopefully work part-time to lessen them.
I got great value from CC. But you'll want to make sure it not only has proper (regional) accreditation, but also a "transfer agreement" to the local university of your choice.
This isn't 100% necessary, but it sure helps as a guideline to know what courses have value for your future program. The naming schemes at different schools can be confusing ("Am I supposed to take Technical Calculus 1 or Calculus 1 for Scientists and Engineers?") - so having the direct transfer numbers is helpful. The advisors at CC aren't always necessarily educated and may make assumptions like EE and EE Tech being the same program..
Finally, if you're going on to a BS, the AS is next to useless in my experience (besides resume fodder). It's the actual classes that transfer that are the value, and whether you finish at CC or not is not a big deal.. (though go ahead and do it if it's just like a few classes different).
CC is cheap and there's sometimes interesting courses like archaeology or whatever so have fun with that.
Cons:
It can be a little more difficult to find a top quality internship while you're a CC student. You should still try to find one though, and join clubs and whatnot.. CC won't have FSAE but they do tend to have other stuff.
It doesn't matter though. Look at the statistics for life long earning potential for degree vs non degree holders. Even if you have to graduate with $100k of debt, you should definitely go to college.
It's easy to be intimidated by the debt load, but that fear is shortsighted. In the long term college makes sense.
Here's some data on the lifetime earning potential between college grads and non grads, from the US Social Security Administration:
"Men with bachelor's degrees earn approximately $900,000 more in median lifetime earnings than high school graduates. Women with bachelor's degrees earn $630,000 more. Men with graduate degrees earn $1.5 million more in median lifetime earnings than high school graduates. Women with graduate degrees earn $1.1 million more"
Just because degree holders have higher lifetime earnings, that doesn't necessarily mean graduating from college will increase lifetime earnings. The alternative hypothesis is that the attributes that drive someone to both go to college and succeed in passing classes are also the same attributes that cause success at work.
I'm not saying a college degree doesn't open doors for you, it absolutely does, I'm saying you can't look at the numbers like that and make that conclusion.
(The dropout rate is also ~45% so you take a significant risk of taking on the cost burden without a payout)
I agree with you on the point that a certain drive and determination helps in both going to college and more general life success irrespective of a degree. There are some people who would succeed without going to college, certainly.
But going to college makes the path much easier, even for talented and motivated people. So I take that into account and look at the numbers, and stand by my assertion that except for maybe the most unique cases college makes sense for the vast majority.
So let's follow your logic and assume it's clearly in everyone's best interest to go to college, and 100% of high school graduates go on to university.
Now the market is flooded with bullshit degrees (assuming no one drops out, putting themselves in an even worse financial situation) and the value of a college degree just went down. Now what?
Turns out that already happens without a degree. Welders and electricians are held in pretty high regard compared to someone who spent 4 years in classes that have no real world application.
Mmm... I think your point is valid, but perhaps a little over-emphasized.
It certainly is worth noting what you are mentioning, that there is more to life than college. The overall summary still is true, though, that college educated students do better career earnings wise. There's just a lot of variance and spread you have to take in account.
There is a lot of spread depending on your major. In addition to the lifetime earnings, the site does note that there is huge variance within each major itself. As quoted, "the highest-earning 10 percent of high school graduates out-earn the bottom tenth of graduates in every single major".
Unfortunately this report does not seem to go in much detail on two year degrees. Because community / 2-year college in the US is so much cheaper than 4 year colleges typically, I am willing to bet that -- especially if you have to go into debt -- there are some good paths there where the pure rate of return is higher than some college paths these days. (The high school diploma path only OTOH doesn't seem that great unless your atypically REALLY self-motivated.)
I do think that chasing career paths solely based on current income is a bad strategy. If you are really into music and meh on molecules, no matter what the average numbers say, it's probably better to be a top 10% musician degree holder than a bottom 10% chemical engineer degree holder.
My point is that there is prosperity outside of a college education, and that we should think about what assumptions are made by employers about people who do get a college education.
That may work if you graduate, but a lot of people end up dropping out, they still get a large portion of the debt, but without the degree. It's really worth at least considering if you're likely to finish before you start.
I have a high school diploma. I dropped out of University after a year to get a startup job in '97. As a self-taught IT worker my lifetime earning have far exceeded all of my University-degreed peers (some Ivy!), even with two market crashes and job losses under my belt. They are earning less or equal to me, and still have staggering 5 and 6 figure debt loads.
There are always exceptions, none of these are hard-and-fast rules.
> As a self-taught IT worker my lifetime earning have far exceeded all of my University-degreed peers (some Ivy!)
What were their degrees in? Did any of them go to private liberal arts colleges? Those are more important facts when assessing their careers than the mere fact they went to college, especially when comparing with someone like yourself, who seems to have had good timing jumping into a new-ish, growing industry.
My parents paid for everything for both my sister and I. I lived at home and commuted, she moved to the other side of the country and dormed/rented. I spent a 5th year in college because I didn't know what I wanted to do for a career.
Having a sibling (me) enrolled in higher education reduced what my parents paid for my sister's tuition by a huge amount, so I was kind of pressured into staying an extra year, but I would have done it anyway because I got to finish a second degree and I wasn't paying.
Funnily enough my sister and I majored in the same non-STEM major, but she went into it with the goal of working in finance from the start, and the main qualifier for that was the school she went to and not the degree itself, while I was kind of planning to go to law school afterwards but wasn't set on it.
Total costs for me for tuition were around $30k, since I did 2 years at community college (not by choice, my high school grades were abysmal). My parents also paid for nearly everything for both of us (food, bills, gas for me, dorm/rent for her, and anything we charged to credit cards within reason if we asked first). She went to an ivy league and I'd ballpark what my parents spent on her tuition alone at $200k. Living expenses were probably another $100k.
She started her career right out of college, I leeched off my parents for another three years and then decided I wanted to go into software development because two of my friends were able to work remotely full-time and that seemed amazing to me. That's honestly what sold me, though I haven't felt the need to find a remote position because I live right next to work and actually enjoy coming into the office.
I don't think college was worth it for me TBH, and when I say that, I mean me as an individual/person, not people in general. I barely made any friends due to commuting + being shy, didn't really enjoy it, I don't felt like I learnt anything I could not have learned on my own, made 0 friends that I still talk to or see on a regular basis today, and I don't think my degrees were a significant factor in starting or continuing my career.
When I have kids and start preparing them for college, I will definitely encourage them to live on-campus. I'll also do everything possible for them to be able to graduate without debt.
At least half of university is the social experience. There's more to life that credentializing in the work force. And university is over in a quick blip anyways, then it gets harder to get laid.
Think of it as a way to make his mid-life crisis less probable.
Your kid will have many full online degrees on the level of conventional M.S., maybe even PhD, once he's adult. These days you have Georgia Tech's OMSCS/OMSA and Duke's MS in Health Analytics already; I am sure more will come.
I doubt there will be online degrees equivalent to a PhD (or calling itself a PhD). The coursework of a PhD is typically very similar to a master's in the same subject (maybe with a few additional requirements) but is usually just a primer for the real work doing our research. Conducting research is an inherently social exercise and the mentorship that is given during a PhD won't be easily replicable with an online program.
I agree with the general point you're making though.
This is one of the things I think about, the alternative options that may expand in the near future. But it kind of goes against half of what I want for him. You're not really breaking out of your parent's orbit and flying on your own when you sit on a computer at your parent's house. It seems like a good option for people who are past that age, living on their own. But I want him to go out and meet new people, make some mistakes and learn from them.
One program that I got excited about a few years ago (unfortunately I was already an undergrad at the time) was Minerva [0]. It's relatively inexpensive, seems as if the coursework has a lot of rigor, and you get to do a bunch of traveling while in school.
You already have external PhD programs at many universities, just their success rate is usually abysmal, which I believe is often due to non-MOOC basic classes they require. As you mentioned, those are often overlapping with advanced grad courses, so at least that barrier could be gone by time OP's kid is adult.
It's all about your network. Going to a good school opens many doors. So yes tech but also get the degree. And if in tech do internships. Ideally and hopefully, your son can get scholarships to offset tuition.
College and dorm living is where, in our family, we meet and fall in love with our spouse. The marriages that worked passed this on for 4 generations. This is an unspoken teaching to all that grow up in all of our roofs.
For me, my kids, my siblings and our parents and (probably both gp) the best thing that happened in college was meeting our spouses.
Besides the notion that so many jobs expected it when I was starting out, I'm not really sure what good it did for me. Put it this way, I couldn't even tell you where my diploma is. But once a month I still go online and pay for it.