I find myself nodding your head at the first sentence.
I think the second sentence is agreed upon/accepted knowledge. The batteries and electrics are NOT difficult.
I'm not sure if the third sentence is relevant. Maybe it is, maybe it isn't. Tesla-like success required thinking outside of the box. If GM just started cranking out mediocre electric cars like they crank out mediocre gasoline-powered cars, I'm not sure it would have made a difference. It took a new company with a fresh approach like Tesla to drive the market.
Whether it's a GM or a Tesla that ends up winning in the long term is up for argument, and it certainly seems like it SHOULD obviously be the big existing carmakers. But they didn't seem interested in doing more than bolting an electric drivetrain to an existing car, which wasn't enough to get people excited about the revolution that electric cars represent.
You're right, of course. Tesla has made electric cars sexy to people with money, the same way the Prius made hybrids sexy (okay, maybe 'popular' is a better word in this particular example) to the layperson.
Electric cars have mindshare now. But unless Tesla can do something Toyota can't for the mass market, another automaker will likely, eventually, eat their lunch. There's no reason Toyota can't bolt on some sexy electronics; the charging network can be accomplished ... somehow, some other way. That doesn't mean Tesla goes away but it means there's a finite market of people willing to pay the premium for a Tesla the same way there's a finite market for people who want the intangibles of (say) a BMW. Unless we presume that Tesla can get their efficiency and margins Toyota-low, which.. again, they can't simply bolt on.
I suppose it's still possibly Tesla can leverage their battery and charging infrastructure to their advantage for long enough to hold off the competition though. Or at least enough to make themselves an acquisition target, but of course, their value needs to be something affordable.
> There's no reason Toyota can't bolt on some sexy electronics; the charging network can be accomplished ... somehow, some other way.
Tesla's charging network is largely a US phenomenon, really. There are 1200 public charging stations in Ireland (owned by the state monopoly electricity distribution company; there are also some independent ones), a small country (many electric cars could cross it without charging) of 5 million people. Of these, 70 are 'fast' chargers (usually 50kW). Tesla charging stations? 2.
Tesla's fast charging stations are a big deal in the US, a very large sparsely-populated country. They are less of a big deal in many European countries, especially where there are robust non-Tesla networks being deployed. Ultimately, I suspect standard fast-chargers will win out over proprietary brand-specific fast chargers.
I think a Tesla acquisition is a good best-case-scenario for them. Their brand, design, and Gigafactories will be valuable for a company with the manufacturing chops to take them on. I’m more bullish on SpaceX, and I think Musk would be better served to focus on it more.
Brand, yes; it's valuable, though almost certainly not 50 billion valuable. Design, eh, questionable. "Gigafactories", certainly not; as mentioned in the article above their car factory doesn't work. As it stands it's a liability.
I think the second sentence is agreed upon/accepted knowledge. The batteries and electrics are NOT difficult.
I'm not sure if the third sentence is relevant. Maybe it is, maybe it isn't. Tesla-like success required thinking outside of the box. If GM just started cranking out mediocre electric cars like they crank out mediocre gasoline-powered cars, I'm not sure it would have made a difference. It took a new company with a fresh approach like Tesla to drive the market.
Whether it's a GM or a Tesla that ends up winning in the long term is up for argument, and it certainly seems like it SHOULD obviously be the big existing carmakers. But they didn't seem interested in doing more than bolting an electric drivetrain to an existing car, which wasn't enough to get people excited about the revolution that electric cars represent.