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There are two kind of science. One consists of incremental improvement research. Copying a master and then adding of additional perfection is the default method here. This one usually holds little risk and is prefered by companys and western governments alike.

Then there are the great leaps, usually possible due to breakthroughs or other wild recombination of existing ideas. These are feared- for as they offer bright rewards at the end of the road- they contain unknown problems, as in sub-problems that need often a combination of further break-throughs and/or incremental research. Fusion research is a great example here.

Some great leaps also turn into great very expensive wild goose chases.

Such risks make no buisness sense, but a central government can overcome the captialistic shortsigthedness - and attempt this research anyway and actually be better at it.

But if you can cheat (avoid risk) then cheat(avoid risk). Let others feed the crocodiles first - so chinese companys research will be as risk shy as western companys research.



I wonder how Einstein fits into the great leap narrative of science. I mean, Germany (or Switzerland) did not get the atomic bomb and no country whatsoever had it in the four decades following the miracle year of 1905. Then after 1945, the Soviets and the Chinese had it pretty quickly.


The Soviet Union obtained the technology through espionage against the United States and the UK. China's program was greatly accelerated with help from the Soviet Union. China's current program is based on espionage against the United States, dating back at least to the 1970s.




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