In my view, this misses the mark. The primary benefit is the second-order effects. Inspiring the next generation of scientists, engineers, and innovators. New technology developed in the process that improves life on Earth. New scientific advancements. A deep feeling of awe and wonder, that ignores borders and nationalities, and brings us closer together as a species.
Now from an economic and investment standpoint. The most important angle here is one of marginal benefit. If we are already spending 100 billion a year on disease, poverty, and climate change (this is a very conservative guess), how much good is adding a few billion more? It's likely not going to move the needle extensively. However, that money that will make an enormous difference in our space endeavors, letting us reap some of those second order benefits.
This idea is core to approaches that involve casting a wide net or diversifying your efforts -- essential strategies for when information/understanding is incomplete and the possibility space is broad. Very much like where we are at today.
Lastly, we need to look longer term. A space program is essential in moving humanity into the next technological era, and will likely have many unforseen positive benefits. Looking at the two paths, I think 200 years now, all else being equal, the GDP and happiness quotient of a society that invests in space exploration will be significantly higher than in one that doesn't.
P.S. This is also a bit ironic coming from Bill Gates, given the impact the space program had on the nascent computing industry:
> Now from an economic and investment standpoint. The most important angle here is one of marginal benefit. If we are already spending 100 billion a year on disease, poverty, and climate change (this is a very conservative guess), how much good is adding a few billion more? It's likely not going to move the needle extensively. However, that money that will make an enormous difference in our space endeavors, letting us reap some of those second order benefits.
I feel like this is faulty reasoning. That money might fund a project that otherwise wouldn't get funded which may cure cancer (unlikely, but honestly I'd say finding a moderate breakthrough for treating a specific strain of cancer with a few billion dollars is about as likely as that few billion dollars getting us significantly closer to Mars). It's not that every project is getting funded and it's just how much they get funded - some projects don't get funded at all. Nobody can predict the future which is why startup investing is so hard - the winners often start out looking like losers (DropBox, AirBnB, Google, Tesla, Apple all struggled to raise money initially). And big accomplishments often come from underdogs, like the Wright Brothers (who were up against much better funded and better educated competition). And sometimes the best discoveries are completely accidental - like penicillin.
Nobody knows the best way to allocate resources. I think the smart thing to do is to back things because you believe in them, not because they seem underappreciated. And honestly, Elon Musk has such a cult following that I'd say anything he does gets way more love than all the other things that money could be spent on.
Now from an economic and investment standpoint. The most important angle here is one of marginal benefit. If we are already spending 100 billion a year on disease, poverty, and climate change (this is a very conservative guess), how much good is adding a few billion more? It's likely not going to move the needle extensively. However, that money that will make an enormous difference in our space endeavors, letting us reap some of those second order benefits.
This idea is core to approaches that involve casting a wide net or diversifying your efforts -- essential strategies for when information/understanding is incomplete and the possibility space is broad. Very much like where we are at today.
Lastly, we need to look longer term. A space program is essential in moving humanity into the next technological era, and will likely have many unforseen positive benefits. Looking at the two paths, I think 200 years now, all else being equal, the GDP and happiness quotient of a society that invests in space exploration will be significantly higher than in one that doesn't.
P.S. This is also a bit ironic coming from Bill Gates, given the impact the space program had on the nascent computing industry:
http://www.computerworld.com/article/2525898/app-development...