You haven't been affected by the changes because nothing has happened yet. This is the start of the negotiations to decide what those changes will be.
And when I say nothing has happened yet, I mean apart from the massive drop in the value of sterling and inflation massively outstripping wage increases.
I assume you're based in London, which means you're fairly isolated from the social changes that have happened across the UK in recent years. London is very pro-EU and immigration friendly. The statistics do show a massive increase in race related hate crimes in the UK since the referendum, so even if the vote wasn't racist, it has given racists a confidence boost.
Except "the experts" were predicting terrible things immediately, not later on - remember the punishment budget necessity?
Inflation "massively outstripping wages" is just over the Bank of England's target, the one it has been massively under for the past 5 years. The drop in sterling doesn't lead to sustained inflationary pressure. Wages are also picking up as well, though not in the public sector.
The "massive increase in race related crime" is also far more complex than newspaper headlines give credit to. The big headlines came from the immediate aftermath 4 days where crimes reported to a website went from 54 to to 85 - i.e. 57%. The police statement on this made the point that it was only a single source that they weren't seeing an increase in community tension - guess what the press went with? The police statistics do bear out an overall increase since the previous year, but by a much lower margin - and in line with year on year increases.
The key point though is that in the UK hate crimes are defined as when the victim, or any other person, perceives a crime to be a hate crime - thanks to the legacy of Macpherson. Reported hate crimes have been trending up for years, partly because there has been a massive cultural shift in the police to record them and on people to report them. So, as with all statistics, it is complicated - did more people perceive an increase in hate crimes because they were being told that they were spiking? Has Britain become a more intolerant place or are we just recording better how intolerant we've been for a while? The Civitas report on this makes for interesting reading http://www.civitas.org.uk/content/files/hatecrimethefactsbeh...
> Except "the experts" were predicting terrible things immediately, not later on - remember the punishment budget necessity?
As a matter of fact, I do remember the "punishment budget", the one which was mocked up for 2019-20 [1], around the time that the UK would actually leave the EU.
No one expected the UK economy to crash the day of the referendum. The projections are all projections for AFTER we have left the EU, not before. The reason exports get that title is because they know enough to at least make their projections from when the changes actually happen.
The language around the budget was "emergency" and "in the event of a vote to leave". You are correct the IFS analysis was about post leaving the EU, that was certainly not the spin the remain campaign placed on it.
Saying "no one expected the UK economy to crash the day of" is a little odd - the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee certainly seemed to think they needed to act in the immediate aftermath of the vote with the interest rate cut which is now looking not such a great idea.
Remember that we had a prime minister that lied and said he'd invoke Article 50 immediately?
All the predictions were based on a bunch of promises by certain people to make rash, idiotic changes immediatly after the vote. Promises that were thankfully broken.
Most of the conditions that these kind of predictions were made under changed the moment Cameron resigned.
Not to mention the majority of people reading HN are in favorable economic situations, so will be among the least effected if/when shit hits the fan.
That said there is a large opportunity for change post EU if we go after it. Unfortunately that would require strong unified leadership from the left / non-tories.
The assumption that most of us work in technology, likely software engineers or closely related roles, combined with the fact that the average compensation for those roles is above average compared to most jobs and most employers in those areas are fairly international so less effected by local politics, compared to other uk centric companies.
According to the IMF [1], the pound was already overvalued. In currency markets, it usually takes large news events to prompt large fluctuations but they are just often the trigger, not the underlying cause.
If the pound was currently undervalued analysts would be all over that by now. None of the large investors in the world are currently investing hard in British assets.
There is nothing indicating that the market will correct itself.
Then the point is you can make your own laws and not wait for some committee of 20+ countries and some Brussels bureaucrats to decide their "one size fits all solution", especially one designed to fit Germany better because it bullies and controls more lackey states' votes?
Also note that by "nothing happens" I mean nothing that negative as the hysteria implies. Not that "nothing at all" happens.
>where the UK could not make a law that it wanted to because of "having to wait for Brussels"?
"Having to wait" not as in actually waiting (e.g. as if Brussels would somehow slow down the pace of law-making in the UK) but in the sense UK will have to be handed down to adopt and enforce EU laws. So, wanting to make a law about X, in the sense that UK citizens see it and to their interests? Tough luck, unless it matches the EU law on the subject.
So the answer to your question is, in any and all cases where the UK law doesn't agree with EU laws.
EU laws goes above national laws. This is based on "The primacy of EU law" doctrine.
The latest battle is over Brussels’ impending ban on the weedkiller glyphosate, the U.K.’s most widely used pesticide, largely due to political pressure from green groups on the Continent already skeptical of pesticides and certain other new technologies in agriculture. But pulling glyphosate, better known as Roundup, from the market, would be devastating to British farmers who rely on the herbicide to treat weeds.
You really did not know that there has been frequent tension between national laws (in the UK and elsewhere) and EU laws in all kinds of aspects (from labor laws to agriculture and shipping), or were you trolling?
(If not from EU or UK I can understand it, because you wouldn't be familiar with the subject matter -- but it's a very common occurence, and a very common theme in the news in EU countries).
The glyphosate thing was IARC (Int.Agency for Cancer Research) deeming that it was probably cancer causing; IIRC there's evidence suggesting that the US EPA had been corrupted in order to pass glyphosate for use. The FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) and WHO have reportedly since determined that it is "safe" [enough] for human consumption and the ECHA (Euro. Chem. Agency) have determined that a ban is not required.
Pulling glyphosate would be devastating. But keeping it if it's causing widespread cancer would be continuing to ruin lives too. The Tories controlling the UK would IMO be more likely to let the proles die and support the farmers (who historically have a Tory preference). I prefer the EU's scientific and cautionary stance to the "will it cause loss of profit for shareholders" stance that we're going to be seeing much more of.
>I prefer the EU's scientific and cautionary stance to the "will it cause loss of profit for shareholders" stance that we're going to be seeing much more of.
I might too, but the question is if they are free to make their own laws or bound to EU law. Not whether EU law might be better (it obviously will be better in some cases, and worse in others).
> "Having to wait" not as in actually waiting (e.g. as if Brussels would somehow slow down the pace of law-making in the UK) but in the sense UK will have to adopt and enforce EU laws
There is no definition or synonym of "wait" that matches your attempt to salvage your initial argument.
No salvaging, what I wrote above is already in my initial argument. I'm just clarifying it further in case somebody got confused.
I wrote: "you can make your own laws and not wait for some committee of 20+ countries and some Brussels bureaucrats to decide their "one size fits all solution".
This means that (with the exit) the British people can make their own laws and don't have to wait for EU bureaucrats to make (one size fits all) laws for them.
I'm not a native english speaker but I don't think that makes any difference in this case, as the meaning from the above first comment is quite clear (and can hardly be read in another way).
What exactly do you find difficult to parse, or think that could be read in another way? Care to give us a plausible interpretation of my initial comment that is in a different spirit to my subsequent rephrasing?
As I wrote: "What exactly do you find difficult to parse, or think that could be read in another way? Care to give us a plausible interpretation of my initial comment that is in a different spirit to my subsequent rephrasing?"
I don't have any nefarious "purposes". If anything, I clarified what I mean in 2 follow-up comments to help anyone stuck up with the phrasing discuss the actual points.
If you don't like my use of "having to wait" you can always refer to the other 2 comments, and tell me any counter-arguments you have with my actual point as paraphrased there. Unless you want to stick to criticizing my use of english and avoid any more difficult subjects.
I still consider the initial phrasing perfectly valid for what I meant, which is: "UK people don't have to wait for EU bureaucrats to make laws for them anymore, they can now make their own laws" -- without being forced to automatically comply with any law or directive the EU puts out.
The UK not being able to make its own laws (as your original comment implied), seems to me to be a quite different thing to having to adopt EU directives (as you are now talking about), and I feel like it's exactly this kind of confusion (deliberate or otherwise) over the years that has contributed to the atmosphere that lead to Brexit.
I gave you a specific example. From this point on, I consider you a troll, but for the record:
The play of words "directives vs laws" doesn't change the fact that UK law is trumped by EU law (sorry, "directives").
The fact that the UK can "make its own laws" is insignificant if those laws have to comply with EU directives (and if new EU directives invalidate UK laws).
Nobody doubts that UK government can draft laws -- the nominal process of putting words to legal documents and enforcing them.
That's not what anybody means when they contest that the UK can't draft its OWN laws. Make one's own law obviously means: "as they see fit", not "but only in accordance to EU law".
>and I feel like it's exactly this kind of confusion (deliberate or otherwise) over the years that has contributed to the atmosphere that lead to Brexit.
The only confusion is between a sovereign state that can make any law its people want (in accordance to any international treaties they've signed) and one that has to consider the law of EU above its own. And you perpetuate it purposefully.
Even the current UK government doesn't try to argue that the UK has lost its sovereignty by virtue of its EU membership. Its own white paper on Brexit acknowledged that the UK was still entirely sovereign.
For the record, I'm really not trolling, but my position on the sovereignty argument is that for me as a UK citizen, it just doesn't matter since I have such a minuscule say in how things are run either way. And I tend to find legislation that comes from the EU (like the abolition of mobile roaming charges, or the working time directive) far less objectionable than the laws that UK politicians draw up by themselves.
>* Even the current UK government doesn't try to argue that the UK has lost its sovereignty by virtue of its EU membership. Its own white paper on Brexit acknowledged that the UK was still entirely sovereign.*
It's not something that's dependent on being acknowledged though. If your national laws have to comply with the laws (or directives if you prefer) passed by a third body, you concede your sovereignty. That's explicit in the very notion of sovereignty -- no matter how politicians might spin it.
>but my position on the sovereignty argument is that for me as a UK citizen, it just doesn't matter since I have such a minuscule say in how things are run either way.
That's a justifiable position one can legitimately hold.
But others can also legitimately feel that it very much matters. And historically and morally, the issue of sovereignty of a national state was never a light one to be set aside with "who cares, we don't very much affect our national policy anyway".
At best it's a stance that's ok for times of plenty or favorable laws, but that starts to matter more when the decisions that are taken go against a countries interests -- and there is no way to overrule them in the national level because even though e.g. 90% of the British are against, 60% of EU policy makers want them.
And despite the talk now being of right wingers being in favor of Brexit, we can very much imagine the opposite: a right wing EU (with e.g. Marie Lepen, the Netherlands guy, some German equivalent etc) that imposes right wing directives and laws upon a progressive Britain. (In fact we don't have to look that far for that: the EU has long impose right leaning labour laws upon more left leaning states).
What baffles me is why you see "but only in accordance to EU law" as a bad thing. Of course I want UK laws to be "in accordance with EU law", it's a positive thing in my mind.
And in those cases I have typically sided with the EU (I'm British).
Data protection laws, anti-trust laws, labour protections, a concerted effort to combat cross-border tax evasion (that the UK ruined by opting not to take part, due to it's enjoyment of being a fucking tax haven) just to name a few.
Seriously, when it comes to laws that protect the average schmuck, the EU is far from perfect but it has been a hell of a lot better than what our own politicians when it comes to looking out for us.
I'd rather be closer to Europe than closer to the US. No question, especially now with that batshit lunatic they have in charge.
Sure. Lets say the UK wants to implement an immigration point system for evaluating which immigrants to let in. They can't do that while being in the EU.
The question that was asked was "what laws is the UK unable to implement because of the EU".
And I gave an example. The EU prevents the UK from making this law. And if the UK wants to pass this law (which it does!!!), then it needs to leave the EU.
This is a perfectly valid reason for leaving the EU. Because the EU doesn't let you do this thing that you want to do.
The EU forbids its member states from reinstating capital punishment; if, for example, the fellow who attacked Parliament last week had lived and the UK wished to execute him it would be unable to.
As I recall, EU directives were behind the ban on traditional units of measure in the UK, although that may be incorrect.
Why is the national level different to the continental and regional levels?
You can apply that same logic to counties: Greater London is very different than Leicestershire. Why should Leicestershire apply laws that are designed to fit London workers? Why can't they make their own laws?
Forget counties, why not neighbourhoods? And so on.
I'm obviously not serious about this, but the logic doesn't hold just because your nationality is different. The average briton has far more in common with the average french, than the average londoner has in common with the average belfaster.
And when I say nothing has happened yet, I mean apart from the massive drop in the value of sterling and inflation massively outstripping wage increases.
I assume you're based in London, which means you're fairly isolated from the social changes that have happened across the UK in recent years. London is very pro-EU and immigration friendly. The statistics do show a massive increase in race related hate crimes in the UK since the referendum, so even if the vote wasn't racist, it has given racists a confidence boost.