It's more like Canada is sticking to the same old plans and is failing to adapt to a future where its economic cycles no longer work.
Canada has what's known as Dutch disease. When the loonie is strong the natural resource sector booms since they get more value in return for selling these assets, however the services and manufacturing sector tend to fall off a cliff since labour cost become too high.
Historically the Ontario govt has banked on this cycle. When the loonie rises and Ontario crashes then govt spending increases to compensate. When the loonie crashes and employment increases, tax revenue increases and then they payoff the debt from the crash. Ditto can be said for Alberta using the opposite scenario.
The federal tax transfer system adds additional funding mechanics to level the playing field between provinces.
That all said, everything has become very different. Oil has crashed due to external forces and the loonie has crashed too. That's fine, but I think govt is trying to figure out why the manufacturing services sectors are not gaining traction as they historical would (which is because other countries are now more equipped to compete within Canada and are still much cheaper... Example Mexico has taken all the auto manufacturing work). At the same time housing prices are 30 to 50% overpriced and the energy sectors nose dive is not a typical down cycle, it's a long term structural change.
I'm probably wrong, but my spidey senses are telling me that Canada is going to go through a rough time and will continue to do so until the govt models these structural changes to compensate. If the Canadian govt jumps into a thoughtless spending spree (which is the current plan) using the old economic model then in 5 to 10 years Canadas outcome could be dire.
[Edit: removed "Greece 2.0" as it highlighted aspects that could not compare to Canada's circumstances.]
Might be the Greece 2.0 prediction. I was with you till there. Greece's debt was in Euros, which the Greek government didn't control.
So Greece had no option to devalue it's currency in response to a slowing economy. Whereas Canada can devalue currency (as we're doing). We have the additional benefit that our debt load is in our domestic currency, so we don't face the debt appreciation challenge many countries face when they devalue their currency.
I think Canada's in trouble, but the Greek situation is fundamentally a different type of problem.
I thought that Greeces problems stemmed from excessive govt spending leading to a situation where the tax revenue could not compensate for the debt load with a consequence of either bankruptcy or bailouts from other countries. At least that's where my comparison starts and ends.
Canada has what's known as Dutch disease. When the loonie is strong the natural resource sector booms since they get more value in return for selling these assets, however the services and manufacturing sector tend to fall off a cliff since labour cost become too high.
Historically the Ontario govt has banked on this cycle. When the loonie rises and Ontario crashes then govt spending increases to compensate. When the loonie crashes and employment increases, tax revenue increases and then they payoff the debt from the crash. Ditto can be said for Alberta using the opposite scenario.
The federal tax transfer system adds additional funding mechanics to level the playing field between provinces.
That all said, everything has become very different. Oil has crashed due to external forces and the loonie has crashed too. That's fine, but I think govt is trying to figure out why the manufacturing services sectors are not gaining traction as they historical would (which is because other countries are now more equipped to compete within Canada and are still much cheaper... Example Mexico has taken all the auto manufacturing work). At the same time housing prices are 30 to 50% overpriced and the energy sectors nose dive is not a typical down cycle, it's a long term structural change.
I'm probably wrong, but my spidey senses are telling me that Canada is going to go through a rough time and will continue to do so until the govt models these structural changes to compensate. If the Canadian govt jumps into a thoughtless spending spree (which is the current plan) using the old economic model then in 5 to 10 years Canadas outcome could be dire.
[Edit: removed "Greece 2.0" as it highlighted aspects that could not compare to Canada's circumstances.]